Will 10% defense increase prop up America's global hegemony?

特朗普大增军费10% 能否“载动”美国全球霸权?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2017-10-19

9月18日,美国参议院通过了总额为6920亿美元的2018财年国防预算案,超出白宫向国会请求的6680亿美元,较2017年增幅超过10%。

BEIJING, Oct. 16 (ChinaMil) -- The United States Senate passed the national defense budget for 2018 Fiscal Year (FY) in the sum of $692 billion on Sept 18, more than the $668 billion requested by the White House and 10 percent more than the 2017 FY budget.

鉴于今年7月众议院通过的财年国防预算总额为6965亿美元,比参议院通过的额度还要高,因此,6920亿美元的美国2018财年国防预算,基本已成定局。

The national defense budget passed by the House of Representatives in July this year stood at $696.5 billion, even higher than the amount passed by the Senate, so the $692 billion budget for 2018FY is basically final.

今年1月20日特朗普就任总统,1月27日即以美国武装力量最高统帅的身份造访五角大楼,当场签署了“重建美军”的行政命令。特朗普表示:“今天我签署对武装力量进行伟大重建的总统令——将为我国军人提供新飞机、新舰艇、新资源和新工具。”

The American President Donald Trump was sworn in on Jan 20, and he visited the Pentagon as commander-in-chief of the US armed forces on Jan 27, where he signed the administrative order to "rebuild the American military". "Today I signed the presidential order to launch a great rebuilding of our armed forces. We will provide our soldiers with new planes, new vessels, new resources and new equipment," Trump said.

因为特朗普所属共和党在参众两院都占有多数席位,参众两院通过高额的国防预算案,是对特朗普雄心勃勃的“重建美军”计划的响应和力挺。但是,特朗普政府大增军费是否能够“载动”美国的全球霸权呢?

Since Trump's Republican Party holds most seats in both houses, the high defense budget passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate demonstrates their response and support to the president's ambitious "military rebuilding" plan. But will the massive increase in military budget prop up America's global hegemony?

特朗普在总统就职典礼上表示:“当全美国都团结在一起时,我们是势不可当的……我们被我们伟大的军队保护着。”但必须认识到的是,美军强大的军力是以巨大的军费支出为支撑的。

In his inaugural speech, Trump said, "When America is united, America is totally unstoppable … We will be protected by the great men and women of our military." But he must admit that the powerful American military is supported with tremendous military expenses.  

发展到今天,庞大的美军已经变成一个“吞钱巨兽”,它力大无比的同时,吞钱的能力也堪比“黑洞”。在美国参议院通过的6920亿美元军费预算中,6320亿美元属于基础预算。所谓基础预算就是美军的日常开销。美军的基础预算怎么会如此庞大?

Today the gigantic American military has become a "money guzzler". It is strong and powerful, but it's also like a black hole of money. In the $692 billion military budget adopted by the American Senate, $632 billion is basic budget, which means everyday expenses of the military. Why is the basic budget so high?

有关资料显示,美军一架大型预警机、侦察机的飞行,每小时耗费达6万~8万美元,完成一次十几个小时的巡航,耗资即达百万美元之巨。至于军舰、航母,吨位更大、系统更复杂、人员更多、航行时间更长,花钱当然也更多。

Information shows that a large early warning aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft costs $60,000-80,000 per hour of flight, and a patrol of over 10 hours costs over a million US dollar. Military vessels and aircraft carriers cost even more because they have larger tonnage, more complicated systems, more personnel and longer voyage times.

如果像菲茨杰拉德号、麦凯恩号导弹驱逐舰遭遇撞伤事故,单艘修复就要花费数亿美元。如果发生冲突或者战斗,花费更是天文数字。由此看来,美军军费尽管高达数千亿美元,但若以亿为单位支出,也不是很经花。

When a guided-missile destroyer like the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Fitzgerald or the USS John S. McCain is damaged, it costs hundreds of millions of US dollars to repair it, and the cost is enormous in the case of conflict or battle. Therefore, although the American defense budget is as high as hundreds of billions of dollars, it really cannot last long if spent in units of hundreds of millions.

特朗普在五角大楼许诺的“新飞机、新舰艇、新资源和新工具”,体现在2018财年年度预算里的,包括70架F-35战机、7架P-8A型反潜侦察机、两艘弗吉尼亚级核潜艇等。此外,维护核打击力量、提升网络作战和防御能力、研发超高音速武器,也是国防支出的三大优先项目。

Trump promised "new planes, new vessels, new resources and new equipment" at the Pentagon, which are embodied in the 70 F-35 fighter jets, seven P-8A anti-submarine reconnaissance planes, two Virginia class submarines and other equipment in the 2018 FY budget.

但这样的武器装备发展和研发计划, 相对于特朗普雄心勃勃的“重建美军”计划,只能算是杯水车薪。就美国海军而言,现有军舰数有两个数字,有的说274艘,有的说276艘,按后者计算,要达到特朗普350艘的目标,还差74艘,造舰任务可谓异常艰巨。

Moreover, maintaining nuclear strike capability, enhancing cyber combat and defense capability and developing hypersonic weapons are three priorities of the budget. But this weapon and equipment Research and Development (R&D) plan is just a drop in the bucket compared to Trump's ambitious plan for "rebuilding the American military". Some say that the US Navy has 274 military vessels today, but others say it has 276. Let's assume there are 276 military vessels, which is 74 short of Trump's goal of 350 vessels, indicating an arduous task of building more vessels.

更何况,2018财年的军费增长,是以牺牲民生支出为前提的。白宫在今年提交的2018财年联邦政府预算报告中,大幅削减了环保、医保、退休福利等开支,削减了补充营养协助计划即食品券项目,大幅削减联邦雇员退休福利、削减残疾人帮扶项目等。其中,仅美国环保部门的预算就被削减了26亿美元。

Besides, the military budget for 2018 FY is increased at the expense of livelihood expenditure. In the federal government budget for 2018FY submitted this year, the White House slashed expenditures on environmental protection, medical care, retirement benefits, the supplementary nutrition assistance program (food stamp program), benefits for retired federal employees, and assistance programs for the handicapped. The budget for the environmental sector alone was cut by $2.6 billion.

这表明美国的联邦财政预算已是捉襟见肘。缩减民生支出,很可能会恶化民众生活保障,民意如果反弹,这样的拆借能否持续很成问题。

This shows that the federal budget is already out at the elbows. Cutting livelihood expenditure may aggravate the guarantee of people's lives, and if the people protest, whether this "rob Peter to pay Paul" approach can last is questionable.

在美国参议院通过的2018年度国防预算中,有600亿美元属于“海外应急行动拨款”,用于美军在阿富汗、伊拉克和叙利亚等国的作战任务。

In the 2018 FY national defense budget passed by the American Senate, there is $60 billion of Overseas Contingency Operations distribution, which will be used for America's operations in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

美国国防部长马蒂斯9月18日证实,美国将向阿富汗增兵。有美国媒体报道称,此次增兵人数应在4000~5000人。这将使美国驻阿富汗总兵力达到1.45万人。

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis confirmed on Sept 18 that the US will send more troops to Afghanistan, and American media reported 4,000-5,000 additional troops will be dispatched, driving America's total troops there to 14,500.

特朗普增兵阿富汗,是奥巴马当年增兵伊拉克的翻版,目的都是想先增兵稳定局势,然后趁势撤军。奥巴马当年的计划大致可算成功,但特朗普的“新版”计划能否成功?笔者认为形势很难乐观。

Trump sending more troops to Afghanistan is just like Obama sending more troops to Iraq years ago. They both want to stabilize the situation first and then withdraw the troops when things are stable in the host country. Obama's plan then was basically successful, but will Trump's plan succeed too this time? This author isn't optimistic.

伊拉克基地组织主要通过路边炸弹和人肉炸弹等手段,制造恐怖事件打击美军和伊拉克政府,属于流窜作案。现今特朗普要对付的阿富汗塔利班,属于有组织、有武装,且在一定区域有统治的区域政权。

The Taliban that Trump has to deal with today in Afghanistan is widely different from the al-Qaeda that Obama dealt with in Iraq. Al-Qaeda launched terrorist attacks mainly by way of roadside bombs and human bombs to attack American troops and the Iraqi government. They were on the run, but the Taliban faced by Trump is an organized and armed regional regime that controls certain areas.

奥巴马对付伊拉克基地组织,采取的是控占要点、张网以待、引敌上钩、逐渐捕灭的战法。增兵可以将“网”织得更密,密到一定程度,恐怖分子、恐怖组织就难以漏“网”了。

When Obama attacked al-Qaeda, his main methods were controlling key spots, weaving a net, baiting the enemy and defeating them gradually. Sending more troops could make the "net" denser, so much so that it was impossible for the terrorists and terrorist groups to "flee".

而现在阿富汗的塔利班,既可以流窜进入大城市如喀布尔,制造恐怖袭击事件,也可以回到北部地区所控区域,或者进入北部山区打游击,依托复杂地形长久盘踞。

But the Taliban in Afghanistan today can either steal into big cities like Kabul to launch terrorist attacks or retreat to the northern areas under their control, or carry out guerrilla combat in the northern mountainous areas, where they can last a long time based on the complicated terrain.

美军拥有的巨大装备、技术优势,在阿富汗的北部山区几乎没有用武之地。而派遣突击部队前往,更是舍己之长露己之短,当年美军特战部队深入进剿的“蟒蛇行动”,曾经使部队陷入险境,付出巨大代价却收效甚微。

The American military boasts substantial advantages in equipment and technology, but that's basically useless in the northern mountainous areas of Afghanistan, and assigning shock troops there would be giving up its own strength and revealing its weakness. The US special operations forces once carried out Operation Anaconda, which put the forces in serious danger and paid a high price for very little effect.

如今美军增兵几千人,对于加强城市治安,让塔利班不敢流窜进入大城市或许有效,对于剿灭盘踞北部的塔利班政权和组织,只能是扬汤止沸,难以釜底抽薪。一旦美军撤退,局势或许又将不可收拾。

Sending thousands of troops may be helpful for improving public security in the city and preventing the Taliban from stealing into big cities, but it won't be very effective for eradicating the Taliban regime and organization that occupy the north. Once the American troops are withdrawn, the situation will get out of control again.

因此,特朗普大增军费10%,对于美军这头“巨兽”,也就是增加一盒开胃点心而已,能否改变美国全球霸权的疲态,恐怕是一个大大的问号。

Therefore, the 10 percent increase in the military budget is just an appetizer for the money-guzzling American military. Whether it can help maintain America's global hegemony is highly doubtful.

(作者吴敏文,来自国防科技大学信息通信学院)

(The article is written by Wu Minwen from the College of Information and Communication at the National University of Defense Technology of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.)

 

 

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