Will US and India achieve objective of jointly containing China?

制衡中国成美印蜜月期催化剂 川普却直接跳过印度?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2017-11-01

美国国务卿蒂勒森访问印度,狠狠地夸三哥一番,顺便踩中国一脚。蒂勒森此前还称未来要与印度建立100年的盟友关系来制衡中国。

BEIJING, Oct. 30 (ChinaMil) -- The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently visited India, where he highly praised the host country and criticized China by the way. Tillerson said earlier that the US will form a 100-year-long alliance with India to contain China.

总的来讲,美印关系已进入新阶段,未来双方将开展全面的政治、军事、经济合作,但由于美国与印度双边关系战略目标的差异,因此两国的盟友关系更多的只是策略上的联合,联手制衡中国的效果也未必会如其所愿

Generally speaking, the US-India relation has entered a new stage and they will carry out comprehensive political, military and economic cooperation in the future. But since the two countries have different strategic goals for their bilateral relation, their alliance is just a tactical cooperation at best, and they may not be able to achieve objective of jointly containing China.

美印关系进入“蜜月期”

US-India relation in "honeymoon"

自从两国在2008年签署民用核协议之后,印度和美国之间的贸易和防务关系直线上升。近年来,美印关系已经进入热恋阶段。

After India and the US signed the civilian nuclear power agreement in 2008, their trade and defense relation has developed by leaps and bounds, and they are in a honeymoon in recent years.

2017年6月26日,印度总理莫迪访问美国。特朗普接见莫迪时称,华盛顿与新德里的关系“从未如此牢固”,莫迪则表示,印度的“新印度愿景”和特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”愿景,将为两国的合作带来新平台。双方签署了贸易和安全等诸多协议。

When Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Modi, who visited the US on June 26, 2017, he said Washington and New Delhi were in a relationship that was never closer, and Modi said India's "New India Vision" and Trump's vision to "make America great again" will create a new platform for their cooperation. The two countries signed a series of agreements covering trade and security.

8月12日,时任美国太平洋司令部司令、海军上将哈里斯宣布,美国正着手帮助印度实现军事现代化,印度将在军事上享受和日本、韩国相当的盟友待遇。

On August 12, Admiral Harry Harris, the then commander of US Pacific Fleet Command, announced that America was helping India to realize military modernization, and would give India the same military treatment as its ally Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK).

9月底,美国国防部长马蒂斯访问印度,表示美国重视印度在印度洋的领导地位,寻求与印度建立“有弹性的地区架构”。

At the end of September, the US Secretary of Defense Mattis visited India, where he said America attached importance to India's leadership in the Indian Ocean and sought to forge a "flexible regional structure" with it.

10月25日,美国国务卿蒂勒森访问印度,双方称两国战略伙伴关系稳步提升,未来将拓展在南亚、印度洋-太平洋地区的战略关系。

On October 25, US Secretary of State Tillerson visited India. The two sides announced that they have developed their strategic partnership steadily and will expand it in South Asia and the Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean region.

美印“热恋”背后的战略盘算

Strategic intention behind the US-India "honeymoon"

美印两国走近并不奇怪,两国可以弥补彼此的战略弱点,双方各有自己的盘算和需求。一方面,美国希望借助与印度的合作扩展在南亚和印度洋地区的影响力。特朗普上台之后退出了谈判多年的跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP),并在一定程度上将奥巴马的“重返亚洲”战略束之高阁,这让美国在东南亚的影响力迅速下降。

It's not strange that the US and India have gotten close. They can make up for each other's strategic weakness and they have their own intentions and needs.

On one hand, the US hopes to enlarge its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean through the cooperation with India. After Trump took office, the US backed out of the TPP that was under negotiation for many years, and shelved Obama's "back to Asia" strategy to some extent. As a result, America's influence in Southeast Asia has weakened quickly.

因此,提升美印两国的双边联系,有利于增进美国在南亚和印度洋地区的利益。今年8月,美国总统特朗普发表了美国的阿富汗和南亚新政策,要求印度在阿富汗事务中发挥更积极的作用。美国还多次批评巴基斯坦打击恐怖组织不力,有意与印度走近来给巴方施压。

Therefore, tightening the bilateral relation between the US and India is good for improving the former's interests in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. In August this year, President Trump released the new policy on Afghanistan and South Asia, and asked India to play a more active role in Afghan affairs. The US also accused Pakistan many times of ineffective attack of terrorist organizations and intends to unite with India to put pressure on Pakistan.

另一方面,美印“热恋”背后的催化剂是制衡中国。访问印度前夕,蒂勒森在CSIS发表题为“定义我们与印度下一个世纪的关系”的演讲,直接表明了美国与印度之间的战略合作是为了制衡中国。

On the other hand, the catalyst of the US-India "honeymoon" is China. Before his visit to India, Tillerson gave a speech at CSIS titled "Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century", in which he made clear that the strategic cooperation between America and India is aimed to contain China.

美军近期频发的“撞船事件”显示出其军力已经捉襟见肘、疲于应付,美国已经不能在辽阔的印度洋-太平洋地区部署更多的部队。

The recent frequent "vessel crash" of the American navy already showed its strained military force. The US is unable to deploy more troops in the vast Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean region.

面对中国的崛起,美国试图在亚太合纵连横,建立美国-日本-印度-澳大利亚四国联盟。今年7月,印度、美国和日本三国在孟加拉湾举行了“马拉巴尔-2017”海上联合军演,这是该项军演规模最大的一次,美国派出了包括“尼米兹”号核动力航母在内的一整个航母打击群参加。

In face of China's rise, the US attempts to form a four-country alliance with Japan, India and Australia in the Asia Pacific.

In July this year, India, the US and Japan held the "Malabar-2017" joint maritime exercise at the Bay of Bengal, the largest of its kind ever, for which the US assigned a whole carrier strike group including the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

印度一直认为自己处于中国崛起的阴影之下,加之中印边界纠纷时不时发酵,拉美国当靠山对印度极具战略意义。莫迪政府力求将印度建设成全球性大国,而军事实力则是大国的重要标志。 “洞朗事件”让印度意识到了与中国的军事差距,印度希望引进美国的精尖武器系统,试图利用美国的军事技术弥补自身军事实力的不足。

India always believes that it is under the shadow of China's rise, and border disputes break out between India and China from time to time, so having the US as its supporter is of great strategic significance for India.

The Modi government strives to build India into a global power, an important sign of which is military strength. The "Donglang incident" made India realize its military inferiority to China, and it hopes to import advanced weapon systems from the US in order to make up for its military weakness.

显然,将印度武装起来遏制中国,对美国而言是十分理想的选择,也是目前印度所喜闻乐见的。美国已经在着手向印度出口更多的核心武器装备,甚至愿意为其提供核动力航母、电磁弹射器和F-35舰载机。

Obviously arming India to contain China is a good choice for the US and something India is happy to see at the moment. The US is already making preparations to sell more key weapons and equipment to India. It's even willing to provide nuclear aircraft carrier, electromagnetic catapult and F-35 carrier-based aircraft.

制衡中国恐难如愿

Intention of containing China may not come through.

美国提出“亚太再平衡战略”,这也被看作是美国重返亚洲的强烈证实,其“印太战略”是其内容的深化,企图把印度拉入美国的战略伙伴网络,不断深化与印度同盟关系,并且在军事方面深入合作。这一政策在保持美国世界领导地位的同时也把印度作为与中国发展相抗衡的力量存在,达到遏制中国的目的。由于中国实力的大幅提升,在“印太战略”下,印度为了自身利益对中国的态度也表现出了矛盾心态。

When the US put forth the "Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy", it was considered a strong piece of evidence for its return to Asia, and the "Indo-Pacific strategy" marked a step further from the earlier strategy with the aim of pulling India into America's network of strategic partnerships, deepening its alliance with India and strengthening military cooperation.

This policy aims to maintain America's world leadership, takes India as a force that counters China's development, and has the ultimate goal of containing China. Owing to the drastic improvement of China's strength, India, under the "Indo-Pacific strategy", has a contradictory attitude toward China because of its own interests.

首先,印度和美国在地缘政治领域的利益存在冲突。美国掌握着当今世界海洋的霸权,由于连接着中东-东南亚-东亚,印度洋是美国海军力图控制的核心地带。印度作为印度洋沿岸最强大的国家,正在建设一支强大的现代化海军。由于印度海军的目标是逐步将军力投射至西起波斯湾、东至南海、南抵非洲的广大海域,这无疑将会和美国的地缘政治目标相抵触。

First of all, India has conflict of interests with the US in geopolitics. The US is a maritime dominator in the world today, and the Indian Ocean, which connects the Middle East, Southeast Asia and East Asia, is a central region the US navy tries to control. As the most powerful state by the Indian Ocean, India is building a powerful modern navy, whose objective is to gradually project its strength to the vast sea areas covering the Persian Gulf in the west, South China Sea in the east and Africa in the south, but that's obviously in conflict with America's geopolitical goal.

其次,美印军事合作的目标存在着矛盾。在莫迪力推的“印度制造”政策下,印度希望获得军事技术,实现国防工业的“印度制造”。特朗普政府则想通过巨额军售促进美国本土就业,美国的军售并不会对印度转让最新技术,更不会在印度本土制造。以印度正在采购的22架“海上守卫者”无人机为例,如果以20亿美元的成本出售,将会在美国本土提供约2000个就业机会。

Second, the US and India have conflicting goals for their military cooperation. Modi is promoting the "Made in India" initiative and wishes to obtain military technology in order to achieve the initiative in national defense industry. The Trump government, however, plans to boost homeland employment through the massive military sale. It won't transfer the latest military technology to India or manufacture weapons and equipment there. At the moment, India is buying 22 Guardian drones from the US, which will create about 2,000 jobs in the US for the price of USD2 billion.

此外,从实际效果来看,印度和美国联手抗衡中国很难如愿。目前中美关系从特朗普当选之后,正在从良好开局向良性发展。中美之间的相互依存已经成为国际政治的一个既存事实,这一点从特朗普即将开始第一次亚洲之行的优先次序中就能看出。

Besides, as far as actual effects are concerned, India and America's plan for joining hands to contain China will hardly come through. The China-US relationship got off to a good start after Trump was elected president and has developed soundly ever since. Their interdependence has become a fact in international politics, and this is reflected in the agenda of Trump's upcoming first Asian tour.

白宫已经宣布,美国总统特朗普将于11月先后访问日本、韩国、中国、菲律宾等亚洲五国,中国紧紧排在美国的2个盟友之后。更重要的是,印度不在这五国之列,印度媒体酸酸地称特朗普亚洲首行中直接“跳过”了印度。

The White House announced that President Trump will visit five Asian countries in November, including Japan, South Korea, China and the Philippines, China being arranged after its two allies. More importantly, India isn't among the five countries. Indian media said, not without discontent, Trump "skipped" India in his first Asian tour.

此番美国国防部长、国务卿轮番来拉拢印度建立联盟,属于特朗普团队惯用的“交易思维”,促进武器出口才是重要目的。卖了电磁弹射系统,说不准往后再卖几艘退役的核动力航母,特朗普的生意稳赢。

The US Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State taking turns to bring India into the alliance reflected the Trump team's usual "trading mindset", while their real purpose is arms export. After the electromagnetic catapult system, perhaps it can sell several retired nuclear aircraft carriers in the next few years. Anyway it's a profitable deal for Trump.

 

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