US media launch grounds for nuclear arms control treaty withdrawal

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2019-09-25 18:07:13

By Du Yugang and Gou Yu

Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, expressed his concern about the prospects of the international arms control system, especially the nuclear arms control treaty system in his article written for the RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS magazine. In his article, titled “World at a Crossroads and a System of International Relations for the Future”, Lavrov stressed that "Now we are witnessing alarming signs that a media campaign in the United States is being launched to lay the groundwork for abandoning the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty."

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, or CTBT, mentioned by Lavrov aims to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, promote the process of nuclear disarmament and enhance international peace and security. The formal signature of the treaty began on September 24, 1996. Up to now, a total of 177 countries have signed it. Actual entry into force would occur 180 days after all 44 states deposit their instruments of ratification (generally based on the possession of nuclear power reactors in 1996). Among the 44 countries, India, Pakistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) explicitly refused to sign it. Among the countries that have signed, seven countries, including the US, have not ratified it. Therefore, the CTBT has not yet entered into force.

The US attitude towards the treaty has undergone ups and downs since its signing in 1996.During the Clinton administration of the Democratic Party, the ratification of the treaty was actively promoted. In 1999, Clinton submitted a bill to ratify the treaty to the Congress. However, it was rejected by the Republican majority. When the George W. Bush administration of the Republican Party came to power in 2000, he clearly announced that they would not consider the issue of ratification during his term of office. In 2013, the Obama administration of the Democratic Party announced once again that it plans to get US Congress to ratify the treaty by 2016.On the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the signing of the treaty in September 2016, the then Deputy National Security Adviser to President Obama Ben Rhodes announced at a press conference that “the ratification of the CTBT is clearly not going to happen this year or -- the likelihood of that happening soon is slim." Obama's promise just faded away. As of today, the US Congress has not yet shown signs of possible ratification of the treaty.

The US refusal to ratify the treaty is based primarily on the following considerations. First, the promotion of the development of new types of nuclear weapons will inevitably lead to the need for nuclear testing. Second, the US has always questioned the reliability of its existing nuclear arsenal. The US believes that the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP) cannot completely replace nuclear tests or solve the reliability problem. Last, the US has adopted a series of actions in the international community and achieved the purpose of restricting major nuclear powers and suspending their nuclear tests. The US can use technical means to verify, supervise and deter secret nuclear tests that other countries may conduct. Thus, the US lost the realistic urgency to enter the treaty into force. Therefore, without major changes, it may be impossible for the US to take the initiative and ratify the treaty in the foreseeable future.

As early as in 2001, the US tore up the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty or ABMT) signed with the Soviet Union in 1972, setting a precedent for withdrawing from international arms control treaties. In February 2019, the US government announced the suspension of the treaty obligations on the grounds that "Russia has long violated the provisions of the "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty" and officially withdrew from the treaty on August 2.The Russian side pointed out sharply that the US is re-applying its old trick and intends to withdraw from the CTBT on the grounds of the so-called "Russian violations of the treaty" at the Conference on Disarmament held in Geneva on July 30.Mr. Andrei Belousov, Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Office at Geneva, believes that the withdrawal of the US aims to disrupt the international arms control system and thereby seek unrestricted development of strategic capabilities, including offensive nuclear weapons and missile defense systems, in order to overwhelm its competitors in military, political and economic aspects.

Under the context that the US has withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), the international nuclear arms control system has suffered a setback. The intention of the US to completely abandon the CTBT is undoubtedly making the situation worse. In addition, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will expire in February 2021, and the US has not given a clear answer to Russia's proposal to host negotiations. The prospects for this treaty are also bleak. The continuous retreat of nuclear arms control treaties and mechanisms will further increase the pressure on nuclear non-proliferation and anti-nuclear terror, and pose serious negative impacts on global strategic balance and security.

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