Why US rejects Iraqi demand to withdraw troops?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Chen Lufan
Time
2020-01-19 13:21:58

By Zhang Hong

The tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and the US once pushed Iraq to the brink of proxy wars. Iraq quickly showed a clear attitude and demanded the US troops to leave. However, the US acted tough, even threatened Iraq, and refused to leave.

Why the US doesn't want to leave?

The US is unwilling to withdraw its troops from Iraq because it aims to keep its influence in Iraq and its surrounding areas, and prevent Iraq from leaving the strategic development track set by the US and becoming an agent of Iran," said Sun Degang, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai.

It is also a matter of saving face. "As a hegemonic country, the US will not quit Iraq easily. It might be easier to invite it to come rather than to ask it to leave. Trump has always believed that the US lost money in the Iraq war, so he stated that the US air base in Iraq is expensive and cost billions of dollars. The US will never leave unless the Iraqi side reimburses related costs," said Yuan Zheng, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Of course, more importantly, Iraq is in the center of the Middle East. For the US, it is necessary to keep military bases in Iraq to curb Iranian-led Shiite forces and combat terrorism," said Yuan.

Tensions slightly eased after tit-for-tat 

"From the perspective of international response, the US's previous tough position did not work well. After all, as a sovereign country, Iraq demonstrated reasonable attitude. From the perspective of public opinions in Iraq, anti-US sentiment is rising and public opinion is backlashing. The US needs to appease the growing resentment," Yuan said, "Also, NATO allies have begun to withdraw from Iraqi bases. The US needs to relax its position out of security concerns. Faced with the fierce response from Iraq, the US may strategically reduce its presence in Iraq and transfer its troops to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc. However, the base will stay," according to Yuan. 

Moreover, the US also has the confidence. "It will not be constrained by Iraq because US has an alternative base for military deployment in Iraq--Kuwait. The US can advance and retreat on Iraqi issue. If anti-Americanism in Iraq rises and US forces face increased security threats in Iraq, the US will deploy a flexible military presence such as military trainers, or security personnel in embassies and consulates. And at the same time, it will transfer military forces to Kuwait," said Sun.

Overall contraction with targeted advancement 

The US maintains a strong presence in the Middle East. Sun said: "The US currently has more than 50,000 people deployed in the Middle East, and undertakes military intervention and deterrence functions in countries including Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria and Israel. The US will focus on Iran to enhance military deployment in the Gulf region. It will also rely on high-tech and use drones to conduct reconnaissance and targeted strikes."

"The strategic importance of the Middle East has declined for the US. However, as a hegemonic country, whether it is the need to maintain regional security order or the expectations of its allies, the US will not withdraw from the Middle East," said Yuan, "Of course, its strategic contraction is obvious. On the one hand, the US will maintain its military presence in the Middle East while relying more on political influence for diplomatic mediation and economic assistance; on the other hand, the US will leverage Israel, Saudi Arabia and other allies to exert American influence. In addition, Trump also proposed to establish NATO-ME -- ME stands for the Middle East -- to expand NATO to the region so that the US-led alliance can play a greater role in the Middle East," said Yuan.

Sun further pointed out: "The US will pursue a policy of overall contraction with targeted advancement in the Middle East. It will use the Gulf region as the key point and achieve political goals through economic means and avoid involvement in large-scale ground wars. By using aerial military intervention, drone reconnaissance and strike and economic sanctions as main intervention methods, the US will maintain its influence in the region."

Disclaimer: This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, which is the website of Overseas Edition of the People's Daily. The article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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