By Lu Hao

卢昊

Recently, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was questioned in both houses of the National Diet by various political parties regarding her earlier policy speech, she stated that Japan would accelerate revisions to the implementation guidelines of the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology," aiming to lift certain restrictions on defense equipment exports. This statement once again reflected Japan's attempt to develop offensive military capabilities under the pretext of responding to so-called "regional security threats," thereby accelerating the shift in its defense policy. The dangerous trend of Japan's military buildup has sparked strong vigilance within the international community.

近日，日本首相高市早苗在国会两院就其此前发表的施政演说接受各党派质询时表示，将加快修改“防卫装备转移三原则”的实施方针，取消对防卫装备出口的部分限制。这一表态再次折射出日本企图以应对所谓“周边安全威胁”为名，发展进攻性军事能力，加速推动防务政策转向。日本强军扩武的危险态势，引发国际社会高度警惕。

The newly inaugurated Prime Minister Takaichi has continued the right-wing policy line of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, taking an aggressive stance on strengthening military power and revising the pacifist Constitution. In her policy speech delivered on October 24, Takaichi formally declared that Japan must independently push for a fundamental reinforcement of its defense capabilities. To that end, she called for raising defense spending to 2% of GDP — a goal originally planned to be achieved in fiscal year 2027 — within the current fiscal year, and planned to revise the "Three Security Documents," including the National Security Strategy, by the end of 2026. These policy positions indicated that Japan is pushing for a qualitative transformation in its defense strategy, taking faster steps to become a war-capable nation unrestrained by its pacifist Constitution.

新上任的高市早苗延续了日本前首相安倍晋三的右翼政策主张，在强化军事力量、修改和平宪法议程上态度激进。10月24日，高市早苗在施政演说中正式提出，必须自主地推进防卫力量的根本性强化，为此，将原定于2027财年实现的“防卫费占国内生产总值（GDP）2%”的目标提前至本财年内达成，并计划在2026年年底前修订《国家安全保障战略》等“安保三文件”。相关政策主张表明，日本正推动防卫战略发生质变，使日本加速成为不受和平宪法约束的“能战国家”。

Japan's soaring investment in military buildup amidst a gloomy domestic economic environment and strained fiscal conditions has sparked widespread doubts. In August this year, Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that the defense budget request for fiscal year 2026 would reach 8.85 trillion yen, marking a record high and the 14th consecutive increase in Japan's defense budget. However, in order to raise the defense expenditure to 2% of GDP within the current fiscal year (ending March 2026) — as planned by Sanae Takaichi, additional defense budget is still needed, along with plans to secure the funding sources, whereas Japan's fiscal capacity is already under strain. How to fill the gap in defense spending and justify the sharp increase in military expenditure? The Japanese government must provide answers to both domestic audiences and the international community.

在国内经济环境和财政状况不容乐观的背景下，日本仍竭力加大军事资源投入，引发外界广泛质疑。今年8月，日本财务省宣布2026财年防卫预算申请额为8.85万亿日元，创历史新高。这意味着日本防卫预算很可能实现“十四连增”。若按高市早苗所言，在本财年（截至2026年3月）内将“防卫费占GDP2%”的目标提前完成，则还需进一步编制补充预算，并确保相应的资金来源，但当下日本财政支撑力已明显下降。如何弥补防卫费缺口，如何向国内民众和国际社会解释大幅提升防卫投入的原因，都将是日本政府需要面对的问题。

In terms of defense equipment, Japan made two major revisions to the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology" and their implementation guidelines in December 2023 and March 2024. These revisions allowed it to export domestically produced lethal weapons not only directly to countries that have granted it production licenses, but also to another 15 countries under certain conditions. Now the Japanese government is considering further relaxing export restrictions on lethal and system-based weapons. Recently, Japan organized a delegation of 13 defense companies, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, to participate in the 2025 Indo-Pacific International Maritime Exposition in Australia, aiming to promote Japanese defense equipment to South Pacific countries and pave the way for further tapping into the global arms market. The participation was also driven by Japan's broader strategic goals—to loosen constraints on its own defense policies, strengthen security ties with regional countries, and advance its geopolitical agenda.

防卫装备方面，日本先后于2023年12月、2024年3月，两次大幅修改“防卫装备转移三原则”及其实施方针，使日本生产的杀伤性武器不仅可以直接出口至给予日“生产许可”的授权国，还可以附带条件地出口至其他15个国家。当前，日本政府正考虑进一步放宽对杀伤性、系统性武器的出口限制。日本近期组织由三菱重工等13家防务公司组成的代表团，赴澳大利亚参加“2025年印度洋-太平洋国际海事博览会”。日方此举意在向南太平洋国家推销其防务装备，为后续进一步进军国际军火市场做好准备，并包含了为自身军事政策松绑、深度绑定地区国家、推进地缘战略布局等长远考虑。

It is worth noting that Japan is also seeking to develop nuclear-powered submarines. In a joint governing document signed on October 20 between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Sanae Takaichi and the Japan Innovation Party, the two parties pledged to promote the acquisition of submarines equipped with "next-generation propulsion systems," giving the green light for the research, manufacturing, and commissioning of nuclear-powered submarines. From Japan's perspective, strengthening its underwater combat capabilities would significantly enhance its ability to control key maritime routes, conduct forward deployments in far seas, and impose strategic deterrence. Japan attempts to establish an "asymmetric deterrent" in this way to curb the sea power development of relevant countries.

值得注意的是，日本还图谋发展核动力潜艇。高市早苗领导的日本自民党，及日本维新会于10月20日签署的联合执政文件提出，将推动获得“下一代推进系统”潜艇，为研产及列装核动力潜艇“开绿灯”。在日方看来，强化水下作战力量将显著提升其控制关键海上通道、远海前出部署以及实施战略威慑的能力。日本妄图以此打造“不对称威慑”，钳制相关国家海上力量发展。

Analysts emphasized that the recent policy positions of the Japanese government reflect a pronounced political shift toward the right. The Japanese leader has openly made erroneous remarks regarding Taiwan in the Diet, implying the possibility of military involvement in the Taiwan Strait — a move wretched in nature and detrimental in consequences. If Japan's plans to expand arms exports and develop offensive weaponry are fully implemented, they would completely shatter the "exclusively defense-oriented" principle enshrined in its pacifist Constitution, turning the country into a source of risks, exacerbating the regional arms race and endangering peace and stability. That, instead of enhancing Japan's national security, would likely further deteriorate regional tensions.

分析人士强调，日本政府近期一系列政策主张政治右倾十分严重。日本领导人在国会公然发表涉台错误言论，暗示武力介入台海可能性，性质和影响极其恶劣。日本政府扩大武器出口、发展进攻性武器装备等行动，若全面付诸实施，将彻底摧毁和平宪法下的“专守防卫”原则，使日本成为加剧地区军备竞赛、危害和平稳定的风险源。这不仅无助于日本自身国家安全的实现，反而会推高地区紧张局势。

(The author is head of the Overall Strategy Section, Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

（作者系中国社会科学院日本研究所综合战略研究室主任）