By Qin Tian
秦天
According to recent foreign media reports, the US Department of War, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), and the US Central Command (CENTCOM) are assessing whether to reduce US military presence in the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region. Although such evaluations remain internal discussions rather than official policy decisions, they clearly reflect the urgency and strategic dilemma of the US military in adjusting its military deployment in the Gulf.
据外媒近日披露，美国国防部、参谋长联席会议及中央司令部正就削减中东地区特别是海湾地区军事存在进行评估。尽管此类评估尚属内部讨论，非官方定策，但已清晰折射出美军调整其海湾军事部署的紧迫性与战略困境。
The current round of fierce confrontation between the US and Iran has highlighted the vulnerability of US military bases and troops stationed in the Middle East. According to US media reports in May this year, at least 228 facilities across 15 US military bases in the Middle East were damaged in the conflict. Among them, the base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain suffered severe damage. In subsequent exchanges of fire, the number of attacks on US military bases and facilities has continued to rise. Assessments show that the cost of repairing these bases and facilities could reach up to $5 billion. However, repair and reconstruction are merely stopgap measures. At present, the structural contradictions between the US and Iran are far from being resolved, and the risk of conflict remains stubbornly high. As long as the flames of war are not extinguished, US military bases in the Middle East will remain targets of Iran's long-range firepower strikes.
本轮美伊激烈对抗，凸显了美军中东基地与驻军的脆弱性。据美媒今年5月报道，美国在中东15处军事基地至少228处设施在冲突中受损。其中，驻巴林的美国海军第五舰队基地受损严重。在此后的交火中，美军基地和设施遇袭数量持续上升。有评估显示，修复相关基地和设施耗资可能高达50亿美元。然而，修复重建仅是权宜之计。当前美伊结构性矛盾远未化解，冲突风险居高不下，只要战火未熄，美军中东基地仍是伊朗远程火力打击的目标。
Even more severe than the attacks on bases is that the long-standing US "forward deployment" model has faced fundamental questioning in this round of conflict. The "forward deployment" model once supported the US in launching large-scale wars to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, in this US-Iran conflict, the US has shown little intention of launching a large-scale ground war, leaving the traditional advantage of forward bases in supporting ground operations largely irrelevant. More crucially, Iran now possesses military strength far exceeding that of Iraq and Afghanistan at the time. Its massive arsenal of missiles and drones has long-range precision strike capabilities, turning the densely deployed US forward bases into prime targets for Iran's asymmetric warfare and severely undermining both their strategic value and survivability.
比基地遇袭更严峻的，是美军长期奉行的“前沿部署”模式在此轮冲突中遭遇根本性质疑。“前沿部署”模式曾支撑美国发动推翻萨达姆政权和阿富汗塔利班政权的大规模战争。但在此次美伊冲突中，美方基本无意发动大规模地面战，前沿基地支持地面作战的传统优势因而难以发挥。更关键的是，伊朗已拥有远超当年伊拉克与阿富汗的军事实力，其庞大的导弹与无人机武库具备远程精确打击能力，使得美军密集部署的前沿基地，反而成为伊朗非对称作战的绝佳目标，战略价值与生存能力双双遭受重创。
Faced with this grim reality, the US military has already made emergency and temporary adjustments to its troop deployment in the Middle East during the conflict. For instance, it withdrew some soldiers and equipment from the Gulf frontlines to Israel and Jordan, which are further away from Iran; and relocated key supply hubs to Diego Garcia deep in the Indian Ocean. However, for the US, which aims to maintain a long-term military presence in the Middle East, a systematic and fundamental adjustment of military deployment is by no means easy and faces multiple constraints.
面对严峻现实，冲突期间美军已对中东兵力部署进行应急性临时调整。比如，将部分士兵和装备从海湾前沿后撤至距伊朗更远的以色列、约旦境内；将关键补给枢纽转移至印度洋深处的迪戈加西亚岛。然而，对于志在长期维持中东军事存在的美国而言，系统性、根本性的军事部署调整绝非易事，面临多重掣肘。
First, simple withdrawal cannot guarantee safety. Jordan and Israel are about 1,000 kilometers away from Iran, while the maximum range of Iranian missiles exceeds 2,000 kilometers. Even if US forces are redeployed to Jordan and Israel, they would remain within Iran's effective strike range. If the US military further retreats to a safe distance, its deterrent effect against Iran and its ability to intervene from forward positions would be severely weakened.
首先，简单后撤无法确保安全。约旦、以色列距伊朗约1000公里，而伊朗导弹最大射程达2000多公里。美军将军事部署撤至约旦、以色列一带，仍在伊朗有效打击范围内。若美军进一步大幅后撤至安全距离，其对伊朗的威慑效力与前沿干预能力将被严重削弱。
Second, adjusting military deployment impacts US dominance and influence in the Middle East. For a long time, the US and Gulf countries have maintained an "oil-for-security" alliance model, of which the US military's forward presence is the cornerstone and symbol. If the US side withdraws its personnel and core facilities in the Gulf on a large scale, its direct military protection for Gulf allies will inevitably shrink drastically, which is bound to impact bilateral mutual trust and alliance relations.
其次，调整军事部署冲击美国在中东的主导权和影响力。长期以来，美国与海湾国家维系着“石油换安全”的同盟模式，美军前沿存在是这一模式的基石与象征。若美方大规模撤出其在海湾的人员与核心设施，对海湾盟友的直接军事保护必然大幅收缩，势必冲击双边互信与同盟关系。
Third, the US worries about the global impact of adjusting its Middle East military deployment. The US is highly vigilant about a "Suez Crisis"-style chain reaction that could be triggered by adjusting its Middle East deployment. Meanwhile, US allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific are closely watching its military moves in the Middle East and expressing concerns over the US military's recent diversion of resources from other theaters to reinforce the region. If the US withdraws from the Middle East too quickly or too drastically, its allies' confidence in US security commitments may waver, which in the long run will inevitably erode the foundation of the US global military layout and alliance network.
再次，美国顾虑调整中东军事部署的全局性影响。美国高度警惕调整中东部署可能引发的“苏伊士运河危机”式连锁反应。同时，美国在欧洲、亚太的盟友正密切关注其中东军事动向，并对美军近期抽调其他战区资源驰援中东表示忧虑。若美国在中东撤军步伐过快、幅度过大，其盟友对美国安全承诺的信心恐将动摇，长远看必将侵蚀美国全球军事布局与联盟网络的根基。
It is not hard to see that the US military's Middle East deployment adjustment faces an intractable strategic dilemma: sticking to the existing "forward deployment" model would make it difficult to effectively counter Iran's missile and drone attacks while forcing the US military to bear the continued high costs of bases damage and personnel casualties; if the deployment is adjusted improperly, this could trigger multiple crises such as the loss of US dominance in the Middle East and the alienation of key allies.
不难看出，美军中东部署调整面临难以破解的战略困局：固守现有“前沿部署”模式，则难以有效应对伊朗的导弹和无人机袭击，还要承受持续高昂的基地损耗与人员伤亡代价；若调整不当，则极可能引发美国在中东地区主导权旁落、关键盟友离心等多重危机。
(The author is from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
（作者单位：中国现代国际关系研究院）