By Guo Xiaobing
On August 4, Russia issued a statement declaring that, in light of the active deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific by the US over recent years, it would no longer voluntarily restrict the deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles. This marks a further escalation of the negative consequences resulting from the de facto termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and signals an increasingly severe situation regarding global INF arms competition.
The INF Treaty was once a key pillar of the bilateral nuclear arms control framework between the US and the Soviet Union/Russia. It requires both parties to completely eliminate all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, and prohibits the production, testing, and launching of such missiles and their launchers. The treaty had promoted the easing of East-West tensions at the end of the Cold War, ended the INF arms race between the US and the Soviet Union in Europe, and contributed to improved security in Asia.
However, during his first term, the US President Donald Trump cited alleged Russian violations as justification for the US withdrawal from the treaty in 2019. Russian President Vladimir Putin also signed an order in the same year to suspend Russia's participation in the INF Treaty. Nevertheless, he stated at the time that Russia would voluntarily refrain from deploying land-based intermediate-range missiles as long as the US did not deploy such systems.
Russia's recent statement is a direct response to the aggressive development and deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles by the US. At the time of the US withdrawal, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that Russia bears sole responsibility for the treaty's demise. However, looking back over the seven years since the treaty's annulment, it is the US itself that has been vigorously developing and deploying land-based intermediate-range missiles.
In terms of developing land-based intermediate-range missiles, the US test-fired land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles in the same month it withdrew from the treaty, and conducted a test of a land-based intermediate-range ballistic missile four months later. So far, the US military has developed multiple land-based intermediate-range weapons that are banned under the INF Treaty, including the Typhon missile launch system capable of firing land-attack variants of the SM-6 missile and land-based Tomahawk cruise missile, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) with a range of up to 1,000 km, and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) Dark Eagle with a range of up to 2,775 km.
In terms of actual-combat deployment, the US has acted with notable urgency. Just one day after withdrawing from the INF Treaty, then Secretary of Defense Mark Esper stated his support for the expedited deployment of conventional land-based intermediate-range missiles in Asia. The US military quickly established a land-based intermediate-range missile system with the Typhon system as the backbone and began projecting its combat capabilities into global flashpoints through the deployment of Multi Domain Task Forces (MDTFs). These new units integrate long-range fires, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities, and have become a critical tool for the US to intervene across oceans in Eurasian affairs.
In Europe, the US plans to deploy the Typhon missile system, the PrSMs, and the Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles in Germany starting in 2026, posing a direct threat to Russia's western heartland. The US Army's 2nd MDTF will use these systems as the core to establish forward deterrence against Russia. In addition, in September 2023, the US military transported two Typhon launchers loaded with SM-6 missiles to Denmark and deployed them on littoral combat ships. In May 2024, two more Typhon launchers were delivered to Denmark.
In the Asia-Pacific, in April 2024, the US Army's 1st MDTF deployed the Typhon system to Luzon Island in the Philippines, bringing the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and China's southeastern coast within its range. In July this year, the US military's 3rd MDTF tested the system's live-fire anti-ship capability during the Exercise Talisman Sabre in Australia, revealing ambitions to control the Indo-Pacific maritime domain. The US military also plans to deploy an MDTF to Japan, aiming to turn it into a forward strike platform targeting China.
In the future, the proliferation of intermediate-range missiles is likely to become even more serious. Both the Philippines and Germany have expressed interest in acquiring the Typhon missile system, while Japan plans to purchase 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles and extend the range of its domestically produced missiles to over 1,000 kilometers, which is a clear break from the "exclusively defense-oriented" principle after WWII. All these will further undermine the already fragile international non-proliferation mechanism and intensify global and regional security tensions.
(The author is the director of the Center for Arms Control Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.