By Ma Yuchen

Recently, during a visit to India, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. claimed in an interview that if conflict were to break out in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines would inevitably be drawn in.

Over the past two years, the Marcos administration has made increasingly overt moves to engage with the Taiwan authorities. Politically, Manila signed Memorandum Circular No. 82 in 2025 to ease restrictions on its exchanges with Taiwan under the pretext of attracting investment. Economically, the Philippines and the Taiwan region have repeatedly held so-called "ministerial-level" economic talks, convened industrial cooperation forums, and signed multiple cooperation agreements. On the military front, the two sides have used joint coast guard training as a springboard to pursue broader "pan-security" cooperation. It is worth noting that, while the current Philippine administration claims to uphold the one-China principle, it pays lip service and acts in violation in reality, which undermines the political foundation of China-Philippines relations. 

The reckless gamble of Marcos on the Taiwan question is driven largely by a desire to divert attention from domestic contradictions. Since taking office, Marcos has been preoccupied with political infighting and has neglected pressing livelihood issues. Data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that in 2023, the poverty incidence among Philippine households stood at 10.9%. Although the government announced in early 2024 that the national poverty rate had declined, a survey conducted by a Philippine polling agency in early 2025 revealed that more than 60% of Filipinos still considered themselves poor. Mounting dissatisfaction with the administration's continued failure in economic governance has fueled public discontent. According to a poll in April this year, the approval rating of the Marcos administration has plunged to 25%.

The underlying motive behind Marcos' hype over the Taiwan question is to magnify external tensions to cover up domestic governance failures and accumulate political capital for future power struggles. However, his attempt to "treat internal ailments with external remedies" through the Taiwan Strait will not succeed. Such adventurist diplomacy does nothing to solve real problems. It only undermines regional peace and stability while harming the fundamental interests of the people in the Philippines.

At a deeper level, the Marcos administration's reckless moves on the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait cannot be separated from US instigation. In its bid to maintain global hegemony, Washington has deliberately turned both the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait into front-line theaters for containing China. Marcos has willingly acted as a pawn of US strategy, tying the Philippines' national interests to Washington's geopolitical chariot. In essence, this gambit sacrifices the well-being of the people in the Philippines and jeopardizes China-Philippines relations in exchange for American political backing.

History has repeatedly proven that the US never treats its "pawns" kindly. The current US administration's utilitarian approach toward allies has already left the Philippines tasting bitterness. During his visit to Washington, Marcos had expected tariff reductions and other forms of support, but in the end secured nothing more than a token 1% concession. Even more ironic, while Marcos declared that the US was the Philippines' strongest partner, President Trump bluntly stated that he "does not mind if the Philippines gets along with China." Adding to the irony, Washington's plan to impose a 100% tariff on imported chips will directly hit the Philippines' electronics industry, which accounts for nearly half of the country's exports. Such a move could deal a devastating blow to the Philippine economy.

At present, Marcos has already fallen into a strategic predicament. By pandering to the US, he has damaged relations with China, yet he failed to secure any substantive support from Washington. Resorting to ever more radical rhetoric and actions to prove loyalty to the US will only further worsen the Philippines' strategic environment. The Taiwan question concerns China's core interests, and any attempt to use it as a political bargaining chip is doomed to fail. Should Marcos persist in his miscalculation, he would not only jeopardize the fundamental interests of the Philippines and its people but also risk going down in history as a destroyer of regional peace and stability. Whether he pulls back from the brink or plunges into irretrievable disaster now stands as the crucial strategic choice before Marcos.

(The author is a scholar of Peking University.)

Editor's Note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.