By Liu Kuangyu
The Taiwan authorities approved the 2026 fiscal budget on August 21. An unprecedented NT$949.5 billion (US$31.1 billion), is allocated for defense, an increase of NT$176.8 billion from 2025, amounting to 3.32% of projected GDP.
Cloaked under the pretext of countering the threat from the Chinese mainland, this sharp rise is essentially driven by the political agenda of seeking "Taiwan independence" by force. Over the past nine years, since Tsai Ing-wen took office, "defense spending" of the Taiwan region has surged from 2% to 3.32% of GDP, a 66% jump. The increase this year alone reaches even 0.91%. The DPP authorities' massive spending in the military field is nothing less than a blatant provocation against the mainland and a grave threat to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. It also lays bare how the DPP has been working hand in glove with Washington in recent years to accelerate the arming of Taiwan region, attempting to push forward an abnormal and disproportionate "militarization of the island" and to advance a dangerous "proxy war" scenario in the Taiwan Strait. Just one year into office, Lai Ching-te has already exposed his reckless militarism and dangerous inclination to provoke conflict, which warrants grave concern.
Following the unveiling of this unprecedented "defense budget," Lai did not attempt to explain or reassure the public. Instead, he chose to make a high-profile display, loudly proclaiming the need to meet the expectations of certain countries and showcasing a supposed resolve for the so-called self-defense. Cho Jung-tai, chief of the island's executive body, even went so far as to boast that this budget fulfilled Lai Ching-te's commitment, as though it were some kind of historic achievement. In reality, the island's drastic spending growth in military field is little more than Lai's attempt to pay Washington its demanded protection fee. His so-called "commitment" refers to Lai's statement in February this year that the island's "defense budget" should be prioritized to exceed 3% of GDP.
Who, then, is Lai Ching-te really making this "commitment" to? For years, the Trump administration repeatedly accused the Taiwan region of free-riding on US security, and Washington's political and academic circles echoed the claim, stressing that the US has neither the responsibility nor the interest to defend the island. They made it clear that if the Taiwan region seeks US support, it must first show its own determination to defend itself by drastically boosting spending in military field, expanding US arms purchases, and deepening mass mobilization for war on the island.
Therefore, the Lai Ching-te "administration" in China's Taiwan region is so eager to trumpet its so-called determination and achievement, yet even this cannot satisfy Washington. As US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby bluntly put it, dedicating 3% of GDP to defense is merely the lowest rung on the ladder; Only figures above 10% would begin to meet American expectations. But Washington's appetite far exceeds what the Taiwan authorities can ever deliver.
Based on the Taiwan region's projected 2025 GDP of NT$26.5 trillion, 10% would amount to NT$2.6 trillion, roughly 90% of the island's total public budget. In other words, a GDP 10% defense outlay would require Taipei to hand over nearly all of its revenues to military purposes, leaving no room for economic and social development, and perhaps not even enough to cover public sector payrolls. In reality, even reaching the current 3% mark has already stretched the DPP authorities to the limit. To pad the figures, it copied NATO's practice of folding in derivative expenses, such as coast guard operations, veterans' benefits, resilience programs, and infrastructure security, so as to inflate the nominal "defense budget." But what Trump demands is hard cash in core defense spending. Such statistical sleight of hand will hardly fool Washington, and it is unlikely the US will tolerate these accounting tricks. In the same period, Japan and Israel also ramped up military spending, which proves that the America First doctrine of Donald Trump is pursued at the cost of global instability, with the Taiwan region being no exception.
In recent years, Taiwan's swelling "defense budget" has already eaten into allocations for social welfare, education, and science. At a time when Washington is simultaneously waging tariff wars, trade wars, currency wars, and industrial wars to hollow out the island's economy, the local authorities in the island are still diverting massive resources to pay tribute to the US and bankroll its green-leaning cronies. Billions go to broken-down tanks, moldy bulletproof vests, F-16Vs delayed for three years in delivery, submarine Narwhal that cannot even be launched, worth NT$350 billion, and civil defense fairs hosted by the Kuma Academy at the cost of NT$2 million. The absurdity speaks for itself. The DPP has, for years, inflated budgets recklessly, normalizing special defense outlays to cover weapons purchases. This short-sighted approach is draining future revenues and piling up debt on future generations. Yet even with such fiscal self-mutilation, the Taiwan local authorities can never hope to satisfy Washington's insatiable appetite.
(The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.)
Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.