By Yun Ruijing
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently visited the US. During the visit, Zelenskyy held discussions with US President Donald Trump on issues such as America's purchase of Ukrainian combat-tested drones and Ukraine's acquisition of military equipment from the US. Following their meeting, Zelenskyy told reporters that Ukraine had drafted a drone production agreement and put forward a proposal for cooperation with the US. Over the next five years, the two sides plan to produce or jointly manufacture drones worth 50 billion dollars, with an annual output of 10 million drones. Can this massive US-Ukraine drone deal truly be implemented? Why has Zelenskyy chosen this moment to put forward a drone cooperation plan with the US?
According to military observer Zhang Xuefeng, if Ukraine succeeds in exporting drones to the US, it will reap multiple benefits. On the one hand, Ukraine could gain greater market recognition. It could use this opportunity to demonstrate to its own people and to potential international clients the advanced nature of its military drones. On the other hand, Ukraine could also secure substantial financial profits. By prompting Europe to fund purchases of American equipment and then having the US procure Ukrainian drone systems, Washington and Kyiv could effectively split Europe's money.
However, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve, Zelensky's proposal appears to have been put on hold. Trump has pledged that once postwar Ukraine is in a position to bring such weapons systems to the export market, the US will purchase Ukrainian drones. However, in the view of Zhang Xuefeng, US drone technology is already among the world's most advanced, far surpassing Ukraine's capabilities. Trump's pledge, therefore, is less about genuine procurement and more about creating leverage to accelerate a ceasefire agreement.
Zhang Xuefeng noted that from the perspective of its domestic development, the US already has a highly comprehensive drone portfolio. For instance, the Global Hawk series is capable of long-endurance, high-altitude reconnaissance, while the RQ-170 Sentinel is designed to operate in high-threat environments. In addition, the US Air Force is developing wingman drones, and the Navy is working on stealth unmanned refueling aircraft. Internationally, Trump aims to resolve the Russia–Ukraine conflict first and has therefore set the following conditions: First, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine; second, that Ukraine will still have the capacity to bring its drones to the export market at that time. As such, Trump's pledge represents merely a future possibility, making it difficult to tell whether he is taking Zelensky seriously or simply humoring him.
Zhang Xuefeng further noted that, given the Trump administration's America First policy and the uncertain prospects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the likelihood of a massive US–Ukraine drone agreement is rather low. First, if the US were to purchase Ukrainian drones on a large scale without negotiating a clear distribution of benefits, it would inevitably trigger strong opposition from domestic defense industry interests. Second, for the Trump administration, which adheres to the America First principle, even the weapons aid provided to Ukraine must be paid for by Europe. Asking the US to foot the bill for Ukraine’s low-end drones would be a costly burden for it. Third, Ukraine has yet to propose any concrete and feasible plan to achieve the target of producing 10 million drones per year. Taking all these factors into account, even if the US and Ukraine manage to reach such an agreement in the future, the total value is unlikely to be substantial. The US would probably only make symbolic purchases of Ukrainian drones or leverage Ukraine'cs low-cost labor to produce them.
Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.