By Shao Yishu and Duan Ting

The potential ownership of Greenland has become one of the focal points of divergence between the US and Europe in recent days. The European Commission recently published its draft of the long-term budget, which proposed to more than double its financial support for Greenland, raising from EUR 225 million in 2021-2027 to EUR 530 million in 2028-2034. The funding will be used for cooperation between the EU and the island in critical raw materials and energy. According to some analysts, it represents the latest move of the EU in the game over Greenland with the US, and reveals its strategic intent of supporting its member states to safeguard their own stability and preserve Europe's overall security and development interests.

Greenland, as an autonomous territory of Denmark, is located at the strategic junction connecting the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. However, the US has long stationed troops and operated military bases there since World War II, exerting de facto influence over the security and military control of the island. Previously, the Trump administration, citing national security concerns, repeatedly threatened that use of force would not be ruled out for the purpose of seizing control of Greenland and asked the Department of Defense to plan for the transfer of the area of responsibility of the island from the US European Command to the US Northern Command. Senior US government officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, inspected the island to create permissive environments. According to recent Danish media reports, there were frequent travels by several Americans between the US and Greenland, attempting to strengthen Greenland’s affiliation with the US through ways including establishing private networks and infiltrating the local society. The series of steps taken by the US against Greenland has fueled the rise of separatist sentiments in Greenland, imposing significant pressure on Denmark and the EU.

Denmark and the EU, with themselves deeply embroiled in security quagmires, seek to maintain stable relations with the US through engagement on the one hand, and accelerate deployment of countermeasures to deny the intention of the US on the other hand. The relevant measures taken by the EU are as follows.

First, it enhances the influence on Greenland and contains the development of the emerging trend of exiting the EU. Despite its repeated statements of support for Denmark in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the EU is unable to provide practical support at the security and military level. Therefore, the EU intends to demonstrate its attention to Greenland's development by significantly increasing financial aid and expanding investments in energy, critical minerals, informatization, education and other fields, aiming to pacify the Greenlanders and mitigate their long-standing dissatisfaction with the EU. At the same time, it also contributes to increasing the difficulty and cost for the US to incite separatist tendencies on the island, thereby resisting the influence and infiltration exerted by the US.

Second, it seeks to seize the right to explore strategic resources and reduce dependence on external countries. Greenland has rich reserves of oil, gas and minerals. Among the 34 critical raw materials in the list prescribed by the EU, 25 types have been discovered and proven in Greenland. Previously, both the EU and the US have expressed investment intentions regarding resource exploitation in Greenland. This May, Greenland's minister for business and mineral resources publicly called on the US and Europe to increase investment in Greenland's mining industry. To reduce the risk of relying on external sources for strategic resources, the EU subsequently reached two mineral investment agreements with Greenland, with energy and critical minerals exploitation prioritized in the funding proposal, reflecting the urgency of taking action ahead of the US.

Third, it highlights the importance of overseas territories and the intention of preventing the shrinkage of strategic interests. Currently, 13 Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) are associated with the EU, with Greenland being one of these OCTs that have been regarded by the EU as an important extension of its strategic interests for a long time. The EU's increased investment in Greenland has sent a political signal that the island is of increasing strategic importance to the EU. For the EU, with climate warming, the Arctic region will become a potential "critical battlefield" in the future. Greenland, with its unique geographical location and rich resource reserves, will play a key role in "anchoring" the Arctic and ensuring the supply of critical raw materials.

Next, the draft budget will come into effect after unanimous agreement by the EU member states and approval by the European Parliament. Given the rise of right-wing political parties in Europe and the growing calls for prioritizing national interests, the EU's significant increase in funding for Greenland may encounter obstruction from certain member states. Furthermore, the Trump administration possibly regards the EU "throwing money" at Greenland as a challenge "against the US". Thus, there is no reason to deny that the US will once again suppress and retaliate against the EU and related countries on the pretext of national security. Then the game between the US and Europe over the island will undoubtedly intensify further.