By Wang Min
The Pentagon recently claimed that it has completed the design of the so-called "Golden Dome" missile defense system, which is now under review. Prior to this, the US government had presented defense contractors with detailed outlines of the system. The program envisions the integration of satellites, next-generation interceptors, radars, and laser weapons to form a four-tier defense network extending from the ground into outer space. However, given the unprecedented complexity and technological obstacles of the plan, analysts argue that there is a sharp contrast between Donald Trump’s grand vision of "all-domain interception" and the realities on the ground. The project also reflects the deep-seated strategic anxieties of the US. This plan is also perceived as posing a severe threat to the peaceful use and development of outer space.
According to the latest disclosures, the "Golden Dome" system will adopt a four-layer defensive architecture, with each layer complementing the others to maximize air-and-missile defense capability. The uppermost space-based layer utilizes early-warning satellites for precise missile tracking and space-based interceptors to engage ballistic missiles during their boost or midcourse phases. The ground-based defense architecture comprises three tiers, including a midcourse intercept layer relying on long-range radars and the THAAD system, a high-altitude defense layer deploying Standard-6 missiles through the Aegis combat system, and a terminal layer planned to field laser weapons and next-generation interceptors.
Ambitious in concept, the idea is far easier to envisage than to implement. On one hand, subsystems developed by defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Boeing suffer from cross-platform communication delays that severely constrain the kill-chain's operational effectiveness. On the other hand, the Golden Dome's reliance on space-based interceptors to target missiles in their boost phase presents a major technical challenge. To be specific, the US has yet to field a delivery vehicle capable of both surviving the extreme heat of atmospheric re-entry and achieving precise targeting of enemy missiles.
The 2028 full-operation target set by the Trump administration is at odds with the technological realities. At present, the system's basic architecture remains unsettled, and the required numbers of launchers, interceptors and ground stations have yet to be determined. On funding, some analyses indicate that spending on the space-based component alone could soar to more than USD 500 billion, far exceeding the prior estimate of USD 175 billion.
The "Golden Dome" programme aims to erect an "invulnerable" shield in space within three years. However, its "preemptive and absolute security" design philosophy reflects the ambition to maintain unipolar hegemony. This not only risks triggering miscalculations that could escalate conflicts in space but is also likely to spur multiple countries to accelerate the development of hypersonic weapons and anti-satellite weapons, thereby driving a vicious cycle of an arms race in space reminiscent of the Cold War.
In addition, US allies such as Japan and Canada are seeking to join the program. Such security cooperation based on military alliances is essentially the construction of exclusive military blocs, which will intensify strategic distrust among major powers and undermine global strategic balance.
Space is a global commons and a shared heritage of humanity. The US and relevant countries should abandon Cold War mentality and work together with the international community to promote the long-term, sustainable development and peaceful use of outer space.