By Yu Lan
Recently, the European Commission unveiled a draft defense plan titled the Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030. According to the EU, the roadmap, particularly the proposed European Drone Defence Initiative, aims to strengthen the bloc's overall defense capacity and guide member states toward achieving full defense readiness by 2030. However, since its release, the draft has drawn considerable skepticism from many sides.
The Defense Readiness Roadmap outlines four flagship defense initiatives, including the European Drone Defence Initiative, the Eastern Flank Watch, the European Air Shield, and the European Space Shield. According to the European Commission, these programs are designed to strengthen Europe's deterrence and defense capabilities across land, air, sea, cyber, and space domains.
Military observer Zhang Xuefeng believes that the EU's decision to propose the Defense Readiness Roadmap at this moment mainly stems from its growing anxiety over the current international security situation and the regional strategic environment. In recent years, Europe's security environment has deteriorated sharply and NATO's European members have deeply felt the backlash resulting from their strategic pressure on Russia. Some European countries have even been amplifying claims that Russia could attack EU member states within the next few years, while US President Donald Trump has urged Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security. Against this backdrop, the EU introduced the Defense Readiness Roadmap. If successfully implemented, the roadmap is expected to promote the development of what the EU calls comprehensive capabilities, meaning that member states' armed forces would gain the ability to anticipate and respond to various crises, including high-intensity military conflicts.
To enable the EU to respond to emergencies and resist external attacks by 2030, the European Commission has recommended that member states form various defense coalitions. In addition, the European Commission has called for accelerated progress in building up military capabilities in several key areas. However, many analysts question whether these ambitious expansion goals can be swiftly implemented in practice. Meanwhile, the much-publicized European Drone Defence Initiative has also come under scrutiny, with critics raising doubts about its necessity as well as the allocation of command and control authority.
According to Zhang Xuefeng, the implementation of the Defense Readiness Roadmap faces significant challenges. Not all EU member states subscribe to the so-called Russian threat narrative, which makes some countries less enthusiastic about developing or deploying related defense systems. Several Southern European nations are dissatisfied that key projects, such as the European Drone Defence Initiative, mainly benefit the EU's eastern members. Meanwhile, the enormous financial investment required for such an ambitious plan is bound to strain national budgets and put pressure on domestic livelihoods and economic stability of EU members. In addition, for many EU countries, the lack of a robust domestic defense industry and the fact that such an industry cannot be rapidly developed in the short term means that large portions of defense procurement funds are likely to flow to foreign defense contractors. Another source of skepticism lies in the institutional dimension. Major EU members such as France and Germany believe that the roadmap reflects the European Commission's intention to interfere in defense policymaking. Given that the EU is essentially an economic rather than a military union, such a move is widely viewed as an overreach beyond the Commission's legitimate authority.
Zhang Xuefeng further pointed out that the EU's introduction of the Defense Readiness Roadmap reflects Europe's growing desire to strengthen its defense autonomy. At present, the US seems to be passing the buck to Europe on defense issues. Aside from the deployment of nuclear forces, Washington now expects European countries to shoulder more of the financial and operational burden for conventional forces. By enhancing its own defense capabilities, Europe also seeks to increase its influence and bargaining power within NATO. However, since Europe remains heavily dependent on the US, achieving true defense autonomy in the short term remains unrealistic.
Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.