By Wang Daning
According to foreign media reports, the US is expected to officially release its new National Defense Strategy and related reports by the end of October. The updated strategy will prioritize security within the US homeland and the Western Hemisphere, accelerate the global strategic contraction, and urge European allies to assume greater defense responsibilities. This series of adjustments, marked by a strong America First orientation, is set to have a profound impact on transatlantic relations and further prompt Europe to reflect on the issue of defense autonomy.
The US Department of Defense announced that Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and his team are responsible for drafting the new National Defense Strategy (NDS). Alongside it, the Pentagon will also release the Global Posture Review (GPR), Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), and Missile Defense Review (MDR). According to US media reports, the new NDS represents a reassessment of America's overall strength and strategic resources. Its core logic largely aligns with the approach taken after Donald Trump's return to the White House. To be specific, it seeks to break away from the post–Cold War security model of global intervention and absolute dominance, and instead establish a security framework characterized by focusing on primary threats, reducing peripheral commitments, and encouraging allies to share greater responsibilities.
Under this framework, the US will prioritize the security of its homeland and the Western Hemisphere, seeking to concentrate resources through strategic retrenchment and burden-shifting. This move will not only reshape the future global security architecture but also profoundly influence the dynamics of major-country competition. As Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Americas, the US military is expected to strengthen homeland defense and tighten control over key neighboring regions, while its role within the European alliance system will evolve from a frontline leader to a rear-area overseer.
The GPR report has drawn close attention from America's European allies, as it involves potential adjustments to US global military deployments. According to reports, the US military may gradually withdraw part of its forces from regions deemed of secondary importance, such as Europe and the Middle East, and redeploy them to the Americas or the so-called Indo-Pacific. Analysts note that this shift will redefine transatlantic relations, putting America's strategic credibility and alliance system to the test.
Recent signs suggest that the US military is gradually reducing its direct investment in Europe's defense. Both the Pentagon and the EU have confirmed that the US will halt funding for the Baltic Security Initiative within the year. This initiative has long served as a key pillar of defense for the three Baltic states and a crucial component in strengthening NATO's eastern flank deployments. In addition, the US has shown diminishing interest in expanding its missile defense deployments in Europe, and the planned reinforcement of the Patriot missile defense system to Eastern European countries may be delayed.
NATO allies generally expect that around 80,000 US troops stationed in Europe will be gradually withdrawn over the coming years. Although President Donald Trump recently assured Polish President Karol Nawrocki that the US will not withdraw troops from Poland and may even increase its presence, he also acknowledged that troop reductions in other parts of Europe are under consideration. Such differentiated statements are intended not only to reassure key allies but also to reflect the uncertainty of the US strategy toward Europe.
Some analysts note that these developments send a clear signal to Europe that the long-term commitment of the US to European security is weakening. Within the US military, there is a widespread perception that military operations in Europe and the Middle East are a waste of resources. Some European media have stated that Europe will adopt a more cautious approach in assessing the security commitments of the US to its allies and adjust its own security strategy accordingly. The reduction of US troops in Europe will undermine NATO's recently set defense build-up goals and, objectively, accelerate the EU’s pursuit of greater defense autonomy.