By Lu Hao
Recently, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was questioned in both houses of the National Diet by various political parties regarding her earlier policy speech, she stated that Japan would accelerate revisions to the implementation guidelines of the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology," aiming to lift certain restrictions on defense equipment exports. This statement once again reflected Japan's attempt to develop offensive military capabilities under the pretext of responding to so-called "regional security threats," thereby accelerating the shift in its defense policy. The dangerous trend of Japan's military buildup has sparked strong vigilance within the international community.
The newly inaugurated Prime Minister Takaichi has continued the right-wing policy line of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, taking an aggressive stance on strengthening military power and revising the pacifist Constitution. In her policy speech delivered on October 24, Takaichi formally declared that Japan must independently push for a fundamental reinforcement of its defense capabilities. To that end, she called for raising defense spending to 2% of GDP — a goal originally planned to be achieved in fiscal year 2027 — within the current fiscal year, and planned to revise the "Three Security Documents," including the National Security Strategy, by the end of 2026. These policy positions indicated that Japan is pushing for a qualitative transformation in its defense strategy, taking faster steps to become a war-capable nation unrestrained by its pacifist Constitution.
Japan's soaring investment in military buildup amidst a gloomy domestic economic environment and strained fiscal conditions has sparked widespread doubts. In August this year, Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that the defense budget request for fiscal year 2026 would reach 8.85 trillion yen, marking a record high and the 14th consecutive increase in Japan's defense budget. However, in order to raise the defense expenditure to 2% of GDP within the current fiscal year (ending March 2026) — as planned by Sanae Takaichi, additional defense budget is still needed, along with plans to secure the funding sources, whereas Japan's fiscal capacity is already under strain. How to fill the gap in defense spending and justify the sharp increase in military expenditure? The Japanese government must provide answers to both domestic audiences and the international community.
In terms of defense equipment, Japan made two major revisions to the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology" and their implementation guidelines in December 2023 and March 2024. These revisions allowed it to export domestically produced lethal weapons not only directly to countries that have granted it production licenses, but also to another 15 countries under certain conditions. Now the Japanese government is considering further relaxing export restrictions on lethal and system-based weapons. Recently, Japan organized a delegation of 13 defense companies, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, to participate in the 2025 Indo-Pacific International Maritime Exposition in Australia, aiming to promote Japanese defense equipment to South Pacific countries and pave the way for further tapping into the global arms market. The participation was also driven by Japan's broader strategic goals—to loosen constraints on its own defense policies, strengthen security ties with regional countries, and advance its geopolitical agenda.
It is worth noting that Japan is also seeking to develop nuclear-powered submarines. In a joint governing document signed on October 20 between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Sanae Takaichi and the Japan Innovation Party, the two parties pledged to promote the acquisition of submarines equipped with "next-generation propulsion systems," giving the green light for the research, manufacturing, and commissioning of nuclear-powered submarines. From Japan's perspective, strengthening its underwater combat capabilities would significantly enhance its ability to control key maritime routes, conduct forward deployments in far seas, and impose strategic deterrence. Japan attempts to establish an "asymmetric deterrent" in this way to curb the sea power development of relevant countries.
Analysts emphasized that the recent policy positions of the Japanese government reflect a pronounced political shift toward the right. The Japanese leader has openly made erroneous remarks regarding Taiwan in the Diet, implying the possibility of military involvement in the Taiwan Strait — a move wretched in nature and detrimental in consequences. If Japan's plans to expand arms exports and develop offensive weaponry are fully implemented, they would completely shatter the "exclusively defense-oriented" principle enshrined in its pacifist Constitution, turning the country into a source of risks, exacerbating the regional arms race and endangering peace and stability. That, instead of enhancing Japan's national security, would likely further deteriorate regional tensions.
(The author is head of the Overall Strategy Section, Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)