By Xu Yongzhi

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently made blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan during a Diet session. Even after China lodged strong protests, she still refused to retract her erroneous statements. This marks the first time a sitting Japanese prime minister has explicitly indicated the possibility of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, confirming the anti-China orientation behind Japan's recent moves to strengthen its military capabilities. It also exposes the Japanese government's ambition to violate its pacifist constitution and to interfere in another country's internal affairs through military means.

Japan's series of wrongful actions, even its open clamor for military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, will only drag the country onto a path of no return.

In 2015, Japan passed the new security legislation, which allowed its Self-Defense Forces to engage in joint operations with foreign militaries. With this, Japan's pacifist constitution, designed to prevent the country from waging war again, was effectively hollowed out at the institutional level. In 2022, Japan adopted the three national security documents, including the National Security Strategy, identifying the prevention of unilateral changes to the status quo by neighboring countries, and, if necessary, the use of force to resolve situations in a manner favorable to Japan, as national security objectives. Japan has since begun building large-scale offensive military capabilities and the capacity for sustained high-intensity operations. In essence, the pacifist constitution's prohibition on acquiring offensive weapons has thereby been fundamentally rewritten.

Based on those strategic documents, Japan is currently developing or deploying more than a dozen types of anti-ship and land-attack missiles, some with ranges of up to 3,000 kilometers, while renovating military infrastructure nationwide and stockpiling vast quantities of munitions.

Previously, whenever being questioned about its reasons for strengthening its military, the Japanese government would invoke the excuse of a severe security environment in the surrounding region, arguing that military buildup was merely for self-defense, a claim that on the surface appeared not to deviate from the pacifist constitution's exclusively defense-oriented principle. According to media reports, Japan's 2022 military buildup plan was largely based on war-game simulations of intervening militarily in a Taiwan Strait contingency, yet Japanese leaders had consistently been evasive about whether they would actually take such military action.

Japan plans to revise the three national security documents by the end of 2026, further increasing its defense spending to enhance new combat capabilities, including the use of and response to unmanned systems. The blatantly provocative remarks made by Sanae Takaichi this time confirm Japan's clear intention to pursue a massive military buildup in violation of its pacifist constitution, exposing previous government claims as outright lies. With Takaichi's remarks now out in the open, it is unclear how the Japanese government will explain yet another round of military expansion.

Whether pushing for an expanded military in violation of the pacifist constitution or invoking the so-called survival-threatening situation, Japanese politicians have never told the Japanese people what the real costs would be. It is foreseeable that, should Japan intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, both the Japanese people and the country itself would be plunged into disaster as a result of the government's extremely dangerous and misguided decisions.

First, it will worsen Japan's surrounding environment. If the Japanese government persists in its reckless course and once again positions itself against the Chinese people, it will only heighten China's vigilance toward Japan's external strategy. Under such circumstances, a constructive and stable China–Japan relationship would be impossible to achieve.

Second, the entire country risks becoming a battlefield. Japan has already converted dozens of airports and ports, from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south, into dual-use military and civilian facilities. In the comprehensive exercises conducted this October, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces used as many as 39 airports and ports for fighter aircraft takeoffs, landings, and military transport. This indicates that, if Japan were to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, the government would effectively tie the entire Japanese population to a path of self-destruction.

Third, Japan will see its name written on the wall of shame again. The Japanese politicians' blatant and provocative remarks on Taiwan not only constitute a grave violation of China's sovereignty, but also make the international community sense the dangerous signs of Japan repeating the tragic errors of militarism. The wars of aggression launched by Japan once brought untold suffering to the peoples of Asian countries. As a defeated nation in WWII, Japan returned the territories it had stolen from China, including Taiwan, to their rightful owner. This is an undeniable victorious outcome of the World Anti-fascist War and an integral part of the post-war international order. One cannot help but ask, where does Japan's "confidence" come from in imagining it can defy the post-war order like a mantis trying to stop a chariot and intervene in the Taiwan Strait?

The Japanese authorities' attempt to meddle in the Taiwan Strait is a blatant trampling on international justice, an open provocation against the post-war international order, and a serious sabotage of China–Japan relations. History's warnings are not far behind us. If Japan refuses to draw profound lessons from its past and dares to take reckless risks, China will deliver a resolute and crushing response. After all, once a fire is lit, how far it spreads is no longer up to the one who started it.

(The author is from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.)