By Hu Chengcheng

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with US President Donald Trump on November 18 local time, at the White House. Trump stated that an agreement on a defense treaty had been reached with Saudi Arabia, and that the Kingdom would acquire fighter jets similar to the F-35 currently in service with Israel. If this deal goes through, Saudi Arabia would become the first country in the Middle East, aside from Israel, to receive the F-35 fighter jets. Does this indicate a subtle shift in US policy towards the Middle East?

Military analyst Zhang Xuefeng explained that Saudi Arabia has long been interested in acquiring the F-35 from the US and has made multiple requests to purchase the aircraft, but has not been successful in the past. The shift in the US stance on the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia can be attributed to three key reasons.

First, the once-booming F-35 market has begun to cool, with countries like Spain announcing they will postpone their procurement plans. Second, if the US does not sell F-35 fighter jets to the Middle East, other nations' fifth-generation fighters will compete to carve up the regional arms market. Third, after Israel's airstrikes on Qatar, Arab nations widely perceive that the US's security commitments in the Middle East have become meaningless. As a result, the US is now eager to repair its relationship with Arab countries.

According to Zhang Xuefeng, the F-35 fighter jet comes in three main variants, including the F-35A, F-35B, and F-35C. The likelihood of the US selling the F-35A to Saudi Arabia is high, though a customized version specifically for Saudi Arabia cannot be ruled out. Currently, Saudi Arabia's fighter jets are mostly fourth-generation models, and if it successfully acquires the fifth-generation F-35, its air combat capabilities will be greatly enhanced. This is one of the key reasons why Saudi Arabia has repeatedly sought to purchase the F-35.

Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East equipped with the F-35. In response to the US's plan to sell the F-35 to Saudi Arabia, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have submitted objections to the Israeli government leadership. However, there are also reports suggesting that Israel is not completely opposed to Saudi Arabia acquiring the F-35 fighter jet. Instead, it has linked its approval of the sale to the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as the provision of additional security guarantees for Israel. Zhang Xuefeng believes that Israel is likely to leverage this situation to exact concessions from the US, seeking some form of "equivalent exchange."

Zhang further pointed out that Israel's air superiority over neighboring Arab countries largely stems from its possession of the F-35. If the US-Saudi deal goes through, Israel's aerial advantage will essentially be offset. Nevertheless, the US typically attaches stringent conditions to its foreign military sales. Therefore, considering Israel's demands, the US is likely to require Saudi Arabia to improve its relations with Israel in exchange for receiving the F-35 fighter jets. Additionally, it may prohibit Saudi Arabia from deploying the F-35 fighter jets in the western regions of Saudi Arabia near Israel. It should be noted that the US-Saudi F-35 arms deal is still in its early stages. There are still many variables to consider during the long process from reaching an agreement to production and delivery.

Zhang Xuefeng observes that while the US ostensibly maintains its security commitments to Israel, its overall approach to the region is undergoing a significant adjustment. Before the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict earlier this year, there was a fragile military balance in the Middle East. However, with the escalation of this conflict, the balance has been disrupted, and Israel's dominance in the region has become increasingly apparent, which is not entirely in line with the broader strategic interests of the US. In this context, the US sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia could serve as a means to somewhat counterbalance Israel's growing military superiority.

Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.