The Japanese government recently approved a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, covering April 2025 to March 2026, which raises the country's defense expenditure to 2% of its GDP. The move has triggered widespread concern within Japan. Data show that Japan's defense spending has increased for 13 consecutive years. According to analysts, Japan's expanding military ambitions are driven by a range of geopolitical calculations and should heighten vigilance among countries in the region.

Reportedly, the supplementary budget approved by the Cabinet on November 28 includes 1.1 trillion yen in defense-related expenses. Combined with the initial allocation of 9.9 trillion yen, Japan's total defense expenditure for fiscal year 2025 will reach approximately 11 trillion yen, accounting for 2% of its GDP.

Since former Prime Minister Miki Takeo decided in 1976 to cap Japan's defense spending at no more than 1% of its GDP, successive Japanese cabinets have generally adhered to this practice. However, data from the Japanese Ministry of Defense show that Japan's defense budget has increased for 13 consecutive years from fiscal year 2012 to fiscal year 2025.

Notably, the Japanese Ministry of Defense included 847.2 billion yen in the newly approved supplementary budget for the procurement of frigates, submarines, missiles, and other equipment, such as the upgraded Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air missile system.

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi recently inspected a base of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in the Ryukyu Islands and announced that the plan to deploy the Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air missile system on Yonaguni Island is progressing rapidly according to schedule. Yonaguni Island, located at Japan's westernmost point, is the closest Japanese island to China's Taiwan region, at a minimum distance of only 110 kilometers.

It is pointed out in a commentary in the Asahi Shimbun that Japan proposed in the three national security documents to fundamentally reinforce Japan's defense capabilities and acquire so-called counterstrike capabilities. However, the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities effectively hollowed out Japan's long-standing "exclusively defense-oriented" principle. Takaichi's security policy follows this trajectory, including further increasing defense spending and significantly loosening restrictions on arms exports. Japan's continued transformation away from its status as a peace-oriented nation is a cause of profound concern.

In addition, the Takaichi administration is also promoting the export of lethal weapons. Reportedly, the Japanese government has held informal consultations with the Philippines regarding the export of the Type 03 surface-to-air missile. According to informed sources, the Philippine side has clearly expressed its desire to introduce the Type 03 surface-to-air missile system into its armed forces.

Xiang Haoyu, distinguished research fellow at the Department for Asia Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, noted that the air-defense missiles Japan plans to provide to the Philippines could, if deployed there, cover parts of the hotspot areas in the South China Sea and complement the missile systems the US military has deployed in the Philippines, thereby creating an offensive forward-operational foothold. Together with the increasingly regularized Japan–Philippines and US–Japan–Philippines joint exercises and intelligence sharing in recent years, this move clearly represents Japan's intention to proactively project its military influence into the South China Sea.

Xiang further analyzed that Japan's ambition to expand its military capabilities reflects multiple layers of geopolitical calculation. From a strategic perspective, Japan is using such arms sales and military assistance to bind the Philippines, while aligning with the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy of the US to build a containment and encirclement framework against China. At the same time, it is attempting to piece together a military cooperation network in Southeast Asia to further pursue its so-called status as a normal country. From a regional impact standpoint, these actions are effectively stirring tensions in the South China Sea. By deliberately amplifying regional frictions and inciting confrontation, Japan is promoting an arms race in the region and undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea. This development should raise high vigilance among countries in the region.

Editor's note: Originally published on CCTV news app, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.