By Niu Xinchun

Prospects of US military action against Iran have drawn widespread international attention. At present, the US is weighing the costs and benefits of using force against Iran. While its position appears increasingly hesitant, it has not ruled out the possibility of military action. Should the US take military action against Iran, it would seriously undermine the international order that the international community has painstakingly built over the past 80 years.

The prohibition of the use or threat of force, enshrined as a core principle of the UN Charter, is a cornerstone of international peace in the post–WWII era. In the decades following WWII, the total area of territory occupied by foreign countries declined markedly, accounting for less than six percent of the occupied territory recorded in the nearly 100 years before the war. Over the same period, the number of states doubled, largely because smaller countries no longer had to fear being annexed by stronger neighbors. As a major country with significant global influence, any move by the US to trample on the principle of state sovereignty would severely undermine the very foundations of the existing international order.

Meanwhile, such actions would not leave the US unscathed, because instability in the international system would inevitably raise the costs of its engagement in global affairs. The so-called alliance system of the US would also come under further strain, with trust among its allies continuing to erode. The US government's actions, from attempting to forcibly control Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to openly claiming it was seriously considering the "buying" of Greenland, have already heightened vigilance and concern among its European allies. Reported plans for possible military action against Iran have caused deep anxiety among its Arab allies, prompting many of them to issue public or private warnings. If this trajectory continues, the US risks exhausting its international credibility altogether.

In several rounds of confrontation between the US and Iran in recent years, Iran has exercised restraint and refrained from taking substantive retaliatory actions. In 2020, after the US carried out the targeted elimination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran responded only with a symbolic strike on the US military bases in Iraq. In 2025, following the US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran likewise limited its response to a symbolic attack on a US military base in Qatar. Iran's past restraint, however, does not mean that it will continue to adhere to such a strategy indefinitely. The US intelligence agencies assess that Iran could attack again the US-related targets in Qatar, Syria and Iraq, among other locations. Tehran has also declared that it would strike Israel if it were attacked. Should the worst-case scenario materialize and a full-scale conflict erupt between the US and Iran, the Middle East would be plunged into turmoil, and the US would find it difficult to emerge unscathed.

Any US military action against Iran would also carry the risk of casualties exceeding politically acceptable thresholds. In previous military operations, the US government announced no fatalities, a factor that to some extent reinforced Washington's inclination to resort to the use of force. However, once substantive military strikes are launched against Iran, the prospect of zero casualties is unlikely to hold. Despite the disparity between Iran's military strength and that of the US, Iran retains credible counterstrike capabilities in and around its own territory, which is sufficient to pose tangible threats to the US military presence in the Middle East. All 19 US military bases in the Middle East are within the range of Iran's missile strikes. Iran is reportedly in possession of more than 2,000 ballistic missiles. Even with a relatively well-developed missile defense system, it would be difficult for the US forces to achieve 100% interception of missile attacks from Iran.

International law, grounded in the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, constitutes the cornerstone of the current international order and serves as an important basis for the settlement of international disputes. Upholding international law is essential to safeguarding international fairness and justice. Major countries, in particular, should take the lead in respecting the authority of international law and fulfilling their obligations under it. For some time to come, the easing of tensions in Iran and other positive factors could provide the US with an opportunity to send signals of de-escalation. Nevertheless, the situation still carries the risk of spiraling out of control due to certain contingencies. The Middle East can hardly afford another round of turmoil and a humanitarian crisis. The world is closely watching the choice of the US.

(The author is Vice President for Academic Affairs at Ningxia University and President of China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University)

Editor's note: Originally published on m.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.