By Wu Minwen

The China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA) and other academic institutions on January 8 released a report titled Nuclear Ambitions of Japan's Right-Wing Forces: A Serious Threat to World Peace. The report warns that the expanding nuclear ambitions of Japan's right-wing forces pose a serious threat to world peace and calls on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to immediately clarify Japan's position on nuclear weapons.

The push of Japan's right-wing forces for military expansion has a long history. Recent remarks by a senior official from the Japanese Prime Minister's Office suggesting that Japan should possess nuclear weapons were by no means a slip of the tongue. Rather, they were a calculated signal and a deliberate test of international reactions, exposing Japan's dangerous inclination toward nuclear armament. In fact, advancing objectives incrementally through a salami-slicing approach has long been a habitual tactic of Japanese politicians. From former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's post-resignation claim that "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency" to Sanae Takaichi's same statements while in office, this represents a step-by-step escalation. After encountering strong opposition, criticism, and condemnation, such remarks are then walked back as having "exceeded the official position." This pattern of advancing one step and retreating half a step has become a familiar maneuver by Japanese politicians seeking to break through the constraints of the pacifist constitution and challenge the post-WWII international order.

According to Japanese media reports, the Prime Minister's Office official who remarked that Japan should possess nuclear weapons is Sadamasa Oue, a special adviser to the Prime Minister responsible for nuclear arms control and non-proliferation affairs. He is known to have close ties with Sanae Takaichi. The fact that Sadamasa Oue faced no disciplinary action after making remarks advocating nuclear armament, coupled with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's silence on the matter, indicates that his comments to some extent reflect Takaichi's own position. By voicing support for nuclear armament, Oue was effectively testing public opinion on behalf of the Japanese government, laying the groundwork for a potential future breach of Japan's "nuclear red line."

From claiming for decades to adhere to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles to senior Japanese officials, within just two months of Takaichi's assumption of office, openly discussing the introduction or construction of nuclear-powered submarines and even advocating the possession of nuclear weapons, Japan has undergone a significant shift in both its defense policy and nuclear policy. This shift has generated serious repercussions domestically and across the international community.

First, such moves would deal a serious blow to the international nuclear arms control regime. To date, Japan has acceded to multiple nuclear arms control treaties, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it signed in 1970, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which it signed in 1996. Whether Japan introduces or independently develops nuclear-powered submarines, or goes so far as to possess nuclear weapons, it would constitute a betrayal of the pacifist constitution and the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and would severely undermine the global nuclear arms control system.

Second, nuclear armament would bring danger, not security, to Japan. Given the immense destructive power of nuclear weapons and the catastrophic consequences of nuclear strikes, most existing nuclear-weapon states have pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states. Japan, as a country without nuclear weapons, is therefore naturally excluded from the list of nuclear strike targets. However, once Japan acquires nuclear weapons, it would effectively place itself on the list of potential nuclear targets. In this sense, nuclear armament would not enhance Japan's security but would instead expose it to the risk of nuclear attack.

Third, Japan would face strong opposition from both domestic and international public opinion. The long-standing commitment of Japan to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles was itself rooted in considerations of national security, and any attempt to break through this self-imposed restraint would directly bring danger upon Japan. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has openly acknowledged that nuclear armament would be absolutely not beneficial for Japan. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has also firmly opposed the Takaichi government's attempt to revise the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

The international community needs to watch out against Japan's dangerous tendency towards possessing nuclear weapons, exercise caution on nuclear cooperation with Japan, and continue bilateral and multilateral discussions on containing Japan's nuclear ambitions and stepping up monitoring and verification. The international law and nuclear non-proliferation regime must stay intact, and Japan must stop testing the bottom and red lines of international justice.

Editor's note: Originally published on zqb.cyol.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.