By Xie Siqiang
NATO recently launched the military exercise codenamed Steadfast Dart 2026. The exercise is led by Germany, bringing together approximately 10,000 troops from 11 European member states, covering land, maritime, air, space, cyber and other forces.
The exercise is divided into two phases, namely deployment and training, which are scheduled for January and February, respectively. NATO's Allied Reaction Force (ARF) will first assemble in Turkey, Italy, and Spain, before maneuvering to Germany by land, sea and air. As the logistics hub of the exercise, Germany is responsible for providing storage and maintenance for weapons and ammunition, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) defense and warning, and other support for the arriving ARF units.
It should be noted that the US is exceptionally absent from the exercise, while the number of European participating states has increased from 9 last year to 11 this year. It gives the exercise a "Europe-led" feature, which is entwined with the complex security situation Europe faces.
On the one hand, the exercise is held at a sensitive time when the US is attempting to capture Greenland. The absence of the US from the exercise is not only a clear manifestation of major divergences emerging within NATO over the Greenland issue, but also a strategic rivalry between the US and Europe. The US attempts to test Europe's true capabilities in defense autonomy to preliminarily design its future potential operational plan of "annexation of the island by force". NATO European member states expect to demonstrate their defense autonomy through the exercise and send a clear signal to the US: should Europe's interests within the alliance continue to be undermined, relevant countries may adjust their strategic orientation and may even not rule out the possibility of military confrontation with Washington.
On the other hand, in the face of the shift of US's strategic focus and the uncertain prospects of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, NATO's European member states are beset by an increasing sense of insecurity, thereby in urgent need to enhance their defense autonomy capabilities. Germany, as the leading state of the exercise, holds a key position in the supply lines of NATO's ARF due to its advantageous geographical location. Therefore, it will also probably lead the future construction of the logistics hub for NATO forces. Germany has adopted a series of ambitious "rearmament" measures in recent years, in the hope of consolidating its core position in the European defense system.
The current rift between Europe and the US is continuously widening. Against this backdrop, the Steadfast Dart 2026 exercise is taken as an important attempt in the process of Europe's autonomy in defense. However, some analysts believe that the exercise has been carried out strictly in accordance with the pre-determined plan, something more like a "military parade" in a simulated battlefield with relatively limited actual effectiveness and deterrence effect. Particularly, the command structure, intelligence system, and supply chains of weapons and equipment of NATO's European member states are still held in the hands of the US, in addition to their reliance on US technological support for space, cyber security, and other critical operation domains, leaving a slim possibility of getting rid of the heavy reliance on US military capabilities in the short run.
Moreover, against the backdrop of uncertain prospects of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the explicit intention of the exercise to deter Russia will inevitably intensify regional tensions. After the NATO exercise, Russia will possibly respond with an exercise in like manner or take more aggressive countermeasures. To attain sustainable security, European countries should not only enhance their defense autonomy, but also enact an effective dialogue mechanism between Russia and Europe and construct a regional security architecture that resolves differences through consultation and negotiation.
(The author is from the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Science)