By Yu Lan
Delegations from Russia, the US, and Ukraine concluded their trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, on January 24 local time. This was the first direct contact among Russian, US and Ukrainian representatives since the escalation of the conflict in 2022, and also the first direct consultations between Russia and Ukraine following Washington's proposed peace plan.
According to media reports, the talks were conducted in separate political and military working groups. No joint statement was issued after the meeting, and no concrete agreements were announced. Some analysts believe that available information suggests the talks touched on several substantive issues between Russia and Ukraine, which has been viewed to some extent as a positive signal.
According to military observer Cui Hongjian, key contradictions in the current Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations remain prominent, with significant differences in positions among the parties. After the meeting, statements from the US and Ukraine were relatively positive, while Russia made no public comment. At the political level, the talks made little progress and even further exposed divisions among the parties. What can be seen so far is that some progress has been made at the military level.
The current situation further indicates that while trilateral talks among Russia, the US, and Ukraine may see some progress at the technical level, significant differences remain at the political and diplomatic levels.
Information from various sides suggests that some progress has been made on military-related issues. The parties discussed matters such as troop disengagement, ceasefire arrangements, supervision mechanisms for ceasefire and suspension of hostilities, and the establishment of ceasefire supervision and coordination centers. They also agreed to prepare relevant terminology and definitions ahead of the next round of talks.
Cui Hongjian noted that even if a ceasefire is discussed at the military level, it would be difficult for Russia and Ukraine to achieve a genuine ceasefire in the absence of reliable political guarantees and enforcement mechanisms. From Russia's perspective, Ukraine may seek to use a ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup and rearm on the battlefield. However, from Ukraine's standpoint, without a ceasefire, the basic conditions for reaching a peace agreement through political negotiations would not exist.
At present, although military-level talks have already addressed the issue of a ceasefire, existing mechanisms and conditions remain flawed. For example, the US is unwilling to take part directly in monitoring a ceasefire, while deep-rooted mistrust persists between Russia and Ukraine.
The question, therefore, remains as to whether any third party can ensure that a so-called ceasefire is effectively implemented. Europe previously sought to play such a role, but in Washington's view, Europe's potential plans to deploy troops to Ukraine are clearly at odds with its position. Therefore, in the absence of European involvement, how a future Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement will be implemented and monitored remains a key unresolved issue.
Cui Hongjian believes that for ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to make real progress, the parties must first build mutual trust. At present, the optimal timing for negotiations has yet to arrive, and the overall outlook remains far from encouraging. Although the three sides have begun to engage and discuss a ceasefire, there are still no signs of a halt in fighting on the battlefield, and localized clashes have even shown signs of escalation. This indicates that basic mutual trust is still lacking among the parties.
As a result, if conditions on the ground fail to ease, further talks scheduled for February 1 may prove largely symbolic. In addition, the exclusion of major European powers from these talks raises a key question as to whether future outcomes may be affected by European reactions and pressures.
The US is eager to advance the negotiations to achieve its objectives. Although there may be signs of easing on certain technical and procedural issues, mutual trust at the political and diplomatic levels remains fragile. Coupled with the ongoing fighting on the battlefield, these factors will continue to constrain any further de-escalation of the situation.
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.