By Fan Jishe
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed between the US and Russia expired on February 5. New START is the only remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between Washington and Moscow. Its expiration marks the complete collapse of the bilateral nuclear arms control system established between the US and the Soviet Union, and later between the US and Russia, since the Cold War, which would sharply increase the risks of a renewed nuclear arms race and strategic miscalculation, once again exposing the world to the grave danger of nuclear disorder.
Overlapping Contradictions Block the Path to Renewal
For a long time, the implementation of the New START between the US and Russia has been far from smooth. The treaty does not place restrictions on the development of missile defense systems. At the time, both sides, motivated by the desire to improve bilateral relations and preserve strategic stability, chose to set aside this core disagreement and ultimately concluded the agreement. In recent years, the deterioration of US-Russia relations, combined with Washington's accelerated development of missile defense capabilities, has led to mounting frictions over treaty compliance.
The Trump administration's negative stance toward New START was a key factor behind its failure to be extended. During his first term, President Donald Trump openly disparaged the treaty as a bad and one-sided agreement. Since 2018, Russia had repeatedly signaled its willingness to extend the treaty, yet the Trump administration remained unresponsive. As the treaty approached its expiration, Washington not only intensified the deployment of new low-yield submarine-launched nuclear weapons, but also insisted on involving third parties in the negotiations, deliberately creating obstacles to renewal. After Donald Trump began his second term, he announced with great fanfare the plan to build the Golden Dome missile defense system, further undermining the already fragile foundation of US–Russia nuclear arms control dialogue.
In addition, the verification mechanisms of the New START had long fallen into stagnation. It explicitly stipulates that the US and Russia are each entitled to conduct up to 18 on-site inspections per year. However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, disputes between the two sides over inspection arrangements continued to escalate. By banning Russian aircraft from its airspace and refusing to issue visas to inspection personnel, the US adopted restrictive measures that effectively deprived Russia of its treaty-based inspection rights. In response, Russia decided in August 2022 to suspend US on-site inspections of its nuclear forces, and later that year announced the postponement of its participation in the Bilateral Consultative Commission of the New START. In February 2023, Russia declared the suspension of its participation in the treaty.
End of the Nuclear Arms Control Era Endangers Global Strategic Stability
The expiration of the New START marks the end of the era of nuclear arms control between the US and Russia. As the US promotes NATO's eastward expansion, deploys missile defense systems at home and in Europe, and imposes comprehensive sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Crimea crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, bilateral relations between the US and Russia have continued to deteriorate, leaving political mutual trust virtually exhausted. Moreover, the US and Russia have long suffered from serious misalignment in their respective arms control priorities, and the process of nuclear disarmament has already reached a deadlock. In general, the historical conditions, political foundations, and shared interests that once gave rise to such arms control treaties have largely disappeared.
In addition, the consensus between nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states may gradually erode, thereby undermining the foundations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and Russia not only reflects the two major powers' fulfillment of their treaty obligations, but also lays the groundwork for broader multilateral arms control participation. However, when the two countries that possess nearly 90% of the world's nuclear weapons abandon their disarmament commitments, tensions between nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear-weapon states are bound to intensify, global nuclear proliferation risks will increase, and the existing international nuclear order may face the danger of collapse.
Lasting peace and security cannot be sustained by fragile deterrence balances or unilateral superiority. As the world's two largest nuclear powers, only by earnestly fulfilling their special and primary responsibilities for nuclear disarmament, concluding arms control treaties through negotiations, and achieving genuine, deep reductions in their nuclear arsenals can the US and Russia truly safeguard global stability and security.
(The author is from the Institute of International Strategic Studies, the Party School of the CPC Central Committee [National Academy of Governance])