A US B61 tactical nuclear weapon
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the only remaining arms control agreement between the US and Russia, expired on February 5, 2026. US President Donald Trump stated on social media that, rather than extending the treaty, "We should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future."
Analysts believe that the Trump administration seeks to attach hidden conditions to a new arms control treaty in pursuit of absolute security, which is opposed by Russia and inconsistent with the expectations of the international community. Moreover, judging from the history of bilateral arms control negotiations and the current political environment in the US, it is unrealistic for Washington to reach, in the short term, a new treaty that meets Trump's demands.
Analysts note that by allowing the treaty to lapse while simultaneously calling for a so-called new agreement, the Trump administration is pursuing a broader "great-power competition" strategy.
Firstly, some US figures who support allowing the treaty to lapse argue that, with rapid advances in military technology, past arms control agreements have become "outdated". Russia is seen as having advantages in new weapons systems such as nuclear-powered cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, and the US hopes to bring these systems under restrictions in a new treaty.
Secondly, the US seeks to use a new treaty to bring more countries into the nuclear arms control framework. Analysts point out that the scale of nuclear arsenals of other countries is in no way comparable to that of US and Russian, making it unlikely that relevant states will respond positively.
Analysts also note that the core logic of US-Russia arms control is to ensure one's strategic stability through "the other's vulnerability." However, while trying to constrain other countries' nuclear capabilities through new arms control mechanisms, the US is simultaneously building the Golden Dome missile defense system aimed at achieving absolute security, an approach that Russia clearly finds unacceptable.
From the perspective of negotiation techniques, reaching a new treaty that meets Trump's demands for being comprehensive, modern, and long-term will be extremely difficult.
According to the US Arms Control Association , the US and the Soviet Union (later Russia) have reached several significant arms control agreements since the 1970s, most of which took years to negotiate. For example, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty began negotiations in November 1969 and was signed in Moscow in May 1972, taking about two and a half years.
Similarly, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) began formal negotiations in November 1981 and was signed in Washington in December 1987, taking over six years to finalize.
US media believe that mutual trust between the US and Russia is currently at a low point and that the conditions for reaching a new arms control treaty do not exist. Even if conditions were favorable, it would take years to negotiate and finalize a nuclear arms control treaty.
For the Trump administration, pushing a new arms control treaty into force would require support from the US Congress. Under the US Constitution, treaties negotiated by the president must be approved by a two-thirds majority in the Senate before they can take effect.
A study by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) notes that, as the Congress' attention to arms control issues has declined, lawmakers no longer prioritize whether such treaties serve national interests. Instead, they are increasingly inclined to vote along partisan lines or use arms control as a tool in political maneuvering.