By Langjia Zeren
The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) was held in Germany from February 13 to 15, 2026. As a key barometer of global geopolitical trends, this year's MSC failed to inject greater certainty into an already volatile international situation. Instead, it clearly underscored a trend in which transatlantic relations are moving from "cracks" toward a "structural rift".
On the eve of the conference, the MSC organizing committee released an annual security report, titled "Under Destruction". The report pointed out that the role of the United States in the international system is shifting from a defender of rules to a unilateral actor focused on its own interests. Using the metaphor of a "wrecking ball", it criticized Washington for undermining the institutional basis of the postwar global governance system through its dismantling of multilateral mechanisms, abuse of tariffs and industrial policy, and its practice of incorporating allied security issues into domestic political games. The report warned that this policy orientation is intensifying Europe's security anxieties and exposing transatlantic relations to unprecedented uncertainty.
Rubio Doctrine: Civilizational Narrative Trumps Institutional Framework
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's speech at the MSC is seen as a concentrated expression of the new round of US policy toward Europe. His remarks display three distinct features.
The first is to replace rules-based order with shared heritage as the bond for the Western countries. In his speech, Rubio downplayed the emphasis on a rules-based international order, appealing instead to Western civilization, Christian traditions, and shared historical heritage. He criticized multilateral institutions such as the United Nations for their limited effectiveness in upholding international law, stressing that the US is not seeking division but aims to "revitalize Western civilization."
The second is to frame "sovereignty" as a new moral compass. He reinterpreted "America First" as a paradigm of sovereignty restoration and encouraged European countries to follow suit, strengthening national autonomy on issues including migration and climate policy.
The third is to declare the end of the "orderly caretakers". Rubio explicitly stated that the US would no longer act as the "orderly caretakers of the West's managed decline", but instead seeks a new type of partnership centered on reindustrialization, enhanced military capability, and realism-focused "hard power".
Europe's Response: From Passive Adaptation to "Strategic Awareness"
Facing the shift in US policy orientation, European countries demonstrated clearer strategic thinking at this year's MSC. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pointed out that Europe should not be drawn into the US domestic "culture wars" and must not lose independent judgment in transatlantic relations. This reflects a more sober awareness within the German policy establishment of the risks of blindly following Washington.
French President Emmanuel Macron once again stressed the urgency of "strategic autonomy" and proposed "de-risking" relations with major powers, including the US. His remarks indicate growing European concern that the US could abandon Europe or treat Europe as a bargaining chip at critical moments. In particular, amid potential private consultations between the US and Russia, Europe's worry about being sidelined in its own security has intensified.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed dissatisfaction with the US position at the conference, criticizing Washington's repeated demands for concessions from Kyiv and the reduction of a war involving sovereignty and principles of international law to a transaction between major powers. He also announced plans to complete the technical preparations for EU accession by 2027, highlighting Ukraine's strategic choice to anchor its long-term security within the European integration process.
Prospects of Western Fragmentation
Overall, this year's MSC appeared to be a rehearsal of Western fragmentation. As the US reshapes alliance relations through transactional logic and emphasizes civilizational identity while weakening institutional constraints, the transatlantic divide has escalated from concrete policy frictions to divergence in ideology and strategic approach. Although the speech of Rubio drew applause for its strong value-driven narrative, it had a limited effect in bridging practical interests and security divergences.
Facing a transatlantic relationship increasingly marked by rifts, Europe is reflecting on its strategic positioning amid uncertainty, seeking to build a new security framework that balances external competition with internal cohesion. Against the backdrop of a widening transatlantic gap, the US and Europe should consider how to manage differences and prevent frictions from spiraling out of control within an increasingly fragmented West.
(The author is an assistant researcher of the Center for the Studies of Marxism and European Civilizations, Institute of European Studies, CASS)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.