Israeli media reported that 11 F-22 fighter jets of the US military landed at an air force base in the southern part of Israel. Just a day before, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) was spotted near the island of Crete, Greek in the Eastern Mediterranean for replenishment, signaling the forthcoming completion of "dual-carrier" deployment by the US military in the Middle East.
According to information released by several media outlets and think tanks, the US military has achieved a large military buildup in the Middle East and surrounding areas.
For the US Navy, as the core of the deployment, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) Carrier Strike Groups carry nearly 100 F-35 and F/A-18 fighter jets and are supported by multiple destroyers. The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has been deployed to the Arabian Sea in advance.
For the US Air Force, in addition to the F-22 fighter jets deployed in Israel, the US military has positioned over 30 F-35 fighter jets, over 30 F-16 fighter jets, over 20 F-15 fighter jets, 12 A-10 attack aircraft and a certain number of Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), reconnaissance and electronic warfare (EW) aircraft and more than 20 tanker aircraft in Qatar, Jordan, and other countries in that region. The US military has also deployed air and missile defense (AMD) systems such as the Patriot and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in the Middle East, and put the B-2 long-range stealth bombers stationed in Continental United States (CONUS) on high alert. Moreover, the US military aircraft based in Europe are capable of maneuvering to the Middle East at short notice.
The US has two major purposes for the large-scale military buildup.
The first is to exert an extreme pressure prior to the talks. Considering the statements and military moves by the US side, it seeks to compel Iran to make significant concessions in the talks scheduled on February 26, 2026 through the threat of force.
The second is for real military preparation. President Donald Trump said previously he was weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to compel it to accept US demands.
William Wechsler, Senior Director of the Middle East Program at the Atlantic Council, a US think tank, analyzed three possible strike patterns regarding the US military operation against Iran.
The first is a "limited strike," aiming to strike major targets of Iranian military and security forces, including Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units and critical infrastructures, in the short term to achieve deterrence.
The second is "long-term degradation," planning periodic strikes on targets including Iran's nuclear facilities, missiles, and unmanned aircraft systems to continuously weaken Iran's military capabilities.
The third is "regime eradication," plotting direct strikes against Iran's leadership and paralyzing its command system.
The US side will probably escalate its military operations over time or implement a combination of the above-mentioned strike patterns, while Iran's negotiating stance and the intensity of its response after being struck may be the crux of the potential development of the conflict.
Once the US military resorts to force against Iran, it may trigger cascading effects and make it difficult for the US to "end the situation."
The first reason is the casualties of the US personnel. It is reported that there are around 40,000 US troops currently stationed at 13 military bases in the Middle East. The Iranian side has clearly warned that if Iran was attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets.
The second is the rapid spillover of the conflict. Newsweek of the US pointed out that Iran still has the ability to "activate" its regional alliance network, escalate the conflict intensity, and expand the conflict scope.
The third is the impact on the global energy market and the supply chain. Wang Yongzhong, an expert at the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said that Iran has the ability to seal off the Strait of Hormuz, and its tactical interference for a short time is sufficient to cause a panic-driven surge in global oil prices.