By Zhu Chenge

Recently, high-level interactions between Japan and the U.S. have noticeably accelerated. In preparation for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's planned visit to the U.S. on March 19, and to set the agenda for the upcoming Japan-U.S. summit, Japanese Ministers of Economy, Trade and Industry, Minister of Defense, and officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have successively held talks with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, and the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Takaichi has also met with the U.S. ambassador to Japan. This will be Takaichi's first visit to the U.S. since assuming office as prime minister.

Since January this year, Sanae Takaichi has repeatedly promoted the idea of conducting summit diplomacy with the U.S. at an unprecedented level, seeking to build political momentum to consolidate her administration. The current Japanese government is facing increasingly prominent internal and external challenges and is highly sensitive to shifts in the global security landscape. It therefore hopes to use this visit to the U.S. to ease both domestic and external pressures.

Meanwhile, structural contradictions within Japan's economy and society are being further aggravated by a range of external factors. On one hand, the energy predicament has triggered serious strategic anxiety. Among Japan's crude oil import, over 90 percent comes from the Middle East. However, as the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran continues to intensify and the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked, oil and electricity prices in Japan have risen sharply. The Japanese government is reportedly planning to release oil reserves unilaterally in the near future, resorting to drawing down stockpiles in an attempt to stabilize the situation.

On the other hand, tariff frictions between Japan and the U.S. have placed heavy pressure on the cabinet of Sanae Takaichi. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the administration of Donald Trump had no authority to impose large-scale tariffs, the U.S. government nevertheless introduced a new round of global tariffs, which has further aggravated Japan's existing economic and social problems, including rising prices and labor shortages. Takaichi is therefore eager to use diplomatic achievements with the U.S. to bolster confidence in Japan's economic prospects, or, more bluntly, to temporarily divert domestic criticism through what could be described as a diplomatic "show."

At present, economic and trade issues as well as regional security are expected to be the top priorities for Sanae Takaichi administration. The focus lies in further strengthening Japan's alignment with the U.S. and enhancing Japan's "presence" in Washington's external strategic planning, in other words, deepening its strategic "binding" to the U.S.

In the economic and trade sphere, Sanae Takaichi hopes to produce visible outcomes from Japan-U.S. cooperation. She stated last month that she intends to work "closely" with Donald Trump during their meeting on an initial round of investment initiatives. In essence, this could involve making greater concessions at the expense of Japan's own interests in the hope of securing stronger attention from the Trump administration to geopolitical security issues in East Asia.

For Takaichi, however, regional security concerns are even more pressing. Beyond the turmoil in the Middle East, which has already dealt a direct blow to Japan's energy security, Tokyo is also worried about a decline in its influence within the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific." There is also concern that the Trump administration might sideline Japan while advancing bilateral relations with China. As a result, Japan is likely to place great importance on clarifying its strategic coordination with the U.S. during the upcoming summit, seeking to elevate what it calls the "unbreakable Japan-U.S. alliance" to a higher level. Therefore, Tokyo may show even greater deference to Washington on issues such as defense spending and even Middle East security.

However, under an unequal alliance framework, Japan finds itself trapped in a strategic "paradox." The visit by Sanae Takaichi reflects Japan's strategic dilemma between its aspiration for major-power status and the constraints imposed by the alliance. The more Japan seeks to bind itself strategically to the U.S., the deeper it risks becoming entrenched in this strategic trap.

First, pursuing "security guarantees" through misguided means will only make other countries more vigilant toward Japan. In an attempt to attract strategic attention from the U.S., the government of Sanae Takaichi is even willing to make a show of loyalty to Washington by seriously interfering in China's internal affairs and touching upon China's sovereignty red lines. By voluntarily placing itself at the forefront of major-power rivalry, Japan will inevitably arouse vigilance and concern among forces around the world that oppose militarism.

Second, while striving to act as a "model ally," Japan finds itself unable to cope with the risks inherent in the alliance. Even as Japan takes pride in being a loyal ally of the U.S., it is also paying a substantial price for global tariffs and investment commitments to the U.S. The government of Sanae Takaichi, by making open-ended concessions in what can be described as "transactional diplomacy," will only continue to erode Japan's economic sovereignty and further worsen an already difficult economic outlook.

Third, Japan's strategic "double standards" has led to a highly fragmented foreign policy. Sanae Takaichi turns a blind eye to the U.S. and Israel's military actions in Iran, ignoring their clear violations of international law, while deflecting attention from the tangible impacts these actions have on Japan. Yet in the Asia-Pacific region, she simultaneously calls for a so-called "rules-based international order." Is Japan truly adhering to "international rules," or merely appeasing the powerful? This will become yet another strategic deadlock that Japan cannot easily rationalize.

In short, the recent high-level diplomatic engagement with the U.S. vividly illustrates Japan's increasingly constrained strategic space between following a major power and seeking autonomous maneuvering, a situation that will only deepen Japan's strategic predicament. Sanae Takaichi may hope to achieve interim goals through this engagement, but in a broader sense, it could only accelerate the downward turn of Japan's strategic trajectory.

(The author is a scholar of the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.