By Liu Leina
According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese government is planning to shift core defense contractors, particularly those involved in ammunition production, to a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) model, in order to ensure the stability of wartime supply chains. This move fundamentally breaks Japan's long-standing model of civilian-based military support, sending out dangerous signals of a comprehensive shift in its national security strategy and an acceleration of military deregulation.
After WWII, Japan's weapons and ammunition supply chains have mainly relied on a small number of private enterprises, resulting in a relatively high level of industrial concentration. Among them, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is mainly responsible for the research, development, and production of air defense missiles, anti-ship missiles, and precision-guided weapons; Japan Steel Works focuses on the manufacture of various naval guns, howitzers, and tank guns; and Komatsu Ltd. specializes in the production of rockets, landmines, and naval mines, as well as engineering equipment. These enterprises generally focus on civilian markets as their primary business, with defense production serving only as a supplementary segment. Although they retain the capability for conversion to military production, they have long faced issues such as dispersed capacity and low mobilization efficiency.
To fundamentally reverse this situation, Japan has begun to restructure its defense industrial system by introducing the GOCO model, under which the government retains ownership of assets while entrusting private enterprises with operations, mandating that they balance national directives with market efficiency.
Japan claims that this move is intended to ensure the stability of defense supply under emergency conditions, but in essence, it aims to achieve comprehensive control over the lifelines of wartime materials. Under the new model, relevant enterprises will be freed from cost constraints and public opinion pressures, forming a mechanism of stable production in peacetime and unified allocation in wartime. With the dual incentives of government orders and fiscal support, enterprises will increase investment in key materials and dedicated production lines, fostering a war economy model.
It is learned that this model will be coordinated with the plan by Japan's Ministry of Defense to build 130 new ammunition depots, strengthening sustained wartime operational capability from both production capacity and stockpiling.
The state control of defense contractors represents a key step in Japan's efforts to reshape its military capabilities and break through the constraints of the post-war system, and it carries multiple underlying strategic intentions.
The first is to build an offensive foundation and hollow out the pacifist constitution. Japan intends to establish a military foundation that goes beyond the requirements of its "exclusively defense-oriented" policy by placing the research, development, and production of offensive munitions under direct government control. At present, Japan's Ministry of Defense is pushing to incorporate this plan into the revised National Security Strategy (NSS) and other security documents, in an attempt to institutionalize its military expansion path through legal means. Right-wing forces in Japan have continuously hyped up external threats under the pretext of national security contingencies, aiming to incite public opinion and create a political atmosphere for fully lifting military constraints.
The second is to relax export restrictions and pursue outward-oriented military development. In tandem with the revision of the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, the state control of defense contractors will enable the government to directly control capacity allocation and export approvals. Going forward, Japan will use this to remove obstacles to overseas arms sales, joint research and development, and the development of long-range strike capabilities, promoting a fundamental shift in its security policy from "inward defense" to "outward intervention," and extending its military influence overseas.
The third is to deepen alliance entanglement and reshape its strategic role. Japan intends to leverage its control over core production capacity and the authority to set technical standards to promote production norms compatible with the US military, facilitating its transformation within the US-Japan alliance from a "protected party" to a "provider of capabilities," thereby enhancing its voice. However, this process in essence embeds Japan's military system more deeply into the US' so-called Indo-Pacific strategy, turning it into a more offensive forward outpost. This will not only intensify regional confrontation, but also place Japan at the forefront of major-power rivalry.