By Cui Hongjian
NATO, hailed just a few years ago as "the most successful military alliance in history," is now facing an existential crisis. The White House's announcement that it was "seriously considering the possibility of the US withdrawing from NATO" has brought unprecedented shocks to Europe.
This statement sends at least two messages. First, Washington's previous talk of "withdrawing from NATO" was merely an expression of dissatisfaction with the alliance. Second, the White House's attitude toward NATO has deteriorated from disdain to disregard and even outright resentment, reaching a critical point after blaming allies for failures in the Iran conflict.
Following the sharp and public escalation of US-Europe tariff disputes and political rifts, NATO has become the "last link" holding the transatlantic relationship together. Nevertheless, from the Ukraine crisis and the Greenland dispute to the situation in Iran, Europe has quickly turned from a strategic ally into a security burden for the US, with strategic security divergences between the two sides no longer being concealed.
Washington has bypassed European allies and the NATO framework to open new fronts near Europe, only to blame NATO and its allies when situations spiral out of control. This stands in stark contrast to Europe's vision of a US-Europe "security community." The US "disintegration narrative" has plunged NATO into a state of bewilderment.
Both the US and Europe still need NATO as a symbol of maintaining their alliance system and the broader Western camp. With the US controlling 40 percent of NATO's core military resources, and Europe unable to find a substitute in such fields as nuclear protection, intelligence, and system integration, Europe's main priority remains keeping NATO intact under the US influence—even as a hollow shell in its consciousness—amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis, its lack of credible deterrence against Russia, and internal divisions over strategic autonomy.
Europe must now seriously consider accelerating strategic autonomy before a possible US withdrawal, while managing its practical relations with Washington within the NATO framework. The US has already pushed Europe to the forefront of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sidelined NATO in military operations beyond Europe. As a potential next step, it may gradually reduce US troops in Europe as a punishment.
However, Washington's reassignment of NATO and Europe's roles does not mean relinquishing control over Europe. The repeated US pressure on Europe over security issues are nothing but "compliance tests," designed to use NATO as a shackle on Europe and cement a master-servant relationship in strategic security.
Given its heavy security dependence, Europe's most realistic path forward is to push for a "Europeanization" of NATO rather than a clean break with the US. NATO is evolving from an alliance for Western military cooperation and security coordination into a diplomatic platform where the US and Europe drift apart in strategic security yet continue to maintain balance and compete with each other.
After enduring the pain of this bewilderment phase, Europe may stop relying on others, gain an independent political identity, and expand its strategic and diplomatic space. Only then can it break free from constraints, achieve true autonomy, normalize US-European relations, and integrate into a multipolar world as a credible pole.
(The author is director of the Center for European Union and Regional Development Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University.)
Editor's note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.