By Chen Hong

Japan and Australia recently held vice-ministerial consultations in Australia, during which the two sides agreed to further strengthen bilateral security cooperation and deepen coordination on supply chain resilience as well as economic security, including in the energy sector. The two sides also exchanged views on a range of issues concerning the Indo-Pacific region and agreed to enhance coordination and responses on these matters.

Looking back at the trajectory of Japan-Australia interactions in recent years, from security dialogue mechanisms to the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), from frequent joint military exercises to intelligence sharing, and now to defense equipment cooperation and industrial chain coordination, a comprehensive and institutionalized security network is rapidly taking shape. In particular, the Mogami-class frigate procurement project agreed upon by the two sides is far from an ordinary arms deal but a critical step toward the integration of their military systems. 

Once equipment, standards, and operational concepts are aligned, the so-called partnership ceases to be neutral and moves toward the substantive building of cooperative combat ability. In other words, Japan-Australia ties are evolving into a quasi-alliance structure in which the name has yet to materialize, but the reality has already taken shape. This approach avoids the political liabilities associated with a formal alliance, while in substance advancing alliance-like integration.

Japan's role in this process is particularly worthy of vigilance. In recent years, Japan has continued to push beyond the practical constraints of its pacifist constitution and strengthen its so-called counterattack capabilities, with the outward expansion of its security policy becoming increasingly unconcealed. Deepening strategic alignment with Australia has become a key lever for Japan's pursuit of normalization. By promoting defense exports, Japan seeks to transform its defense industrial system and shift from a security-dependent role to that of a security provider. In this sense, Japan is using cooperation with Australia as a springboard to anchor the expansion of its military role in concrete terms.

For Australia, however, this choice appears more like a strategic bet shaped by underlying anxiety. From joining the AUKUS partnership to steadily drawing closer to NATO and further strengthening cooperation with Japan, Australia's trajectory may appear to be about weaving a denser security network, but in essence reflects a deepening external dependence. Security alignment with Japan provides Australia with a new military foothold and supports its policy narratives on supply chain and energy security, but at the cost of a steadily shrinking space for strategic autonomy.

More concerning is that this growing Japan-Australia security alignment is beginning to spill over and impact the broader Asia-Pacific security architecture. First, such alignment carries the potential risk of bloc-based confrontation. In an already complex and sensitive geopolitical environment in the Asia-Pacific, the introduction of an exclusive quasi-alliance mechanism amounts to continuously adding fuel to tensions and will inevitably trigger chain reactions. Second, this form of cooperation is likely to accelerate the escalation of an arms race. Once defense coordination becomes interconnected, actions by a single country may evolve into coordinated strategic moves, significantly amplifying the risks of miscalculation and misjudgment, and making it easier for localized frictions to spill over into systemic conflicts.

In essence, the quasi-military alliance trend in Japan-Australia relations is eroding the open and inclusive security logic that has long underpinned stability in the Asia-Pacific. In the past, regional stability relied on multilateralism and inclusiveness, rather than exclusivity and confrontation. Fundamentally, the risks of Japan-Australia security alignment lie not only in the substance of their cooperation, but more importantly in its direction of replacing the concept of common security with an exclusive alliance approach. History has repeatedly shown that such a path only amplifies insecurity rather than delivering genuine stability. When security is reduced to taking sides, and cooperation gives way to confrontation, the very foundation of order is undermined.

(The author is a professor and the director of the Australian Studies Centre, East China Normal University)

Editor's note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.