By Xiang Haoyu
A destroyer of the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) brazenly stirred up trouble in the Taiwan Strait on April 17. This marked yet another dangerous provocation by Japan's neo-militarism. The Chinese military has responded in accordance with laws and regulations.
Due to an extremely insufficient clean-up of the remnants of militarism after WWII, right-wing forces in Japan have long been restless. In recent years, they have been making incremental and aggressive moves across multiple areas in an attempt to test and breach restrictions. Among these attempts, their push to overturn the Three Non-Nuclear Principles is particularly alarming.
Since the Takaichi administration took office, public discussions and policy probes regarding Japan's independent nuclear armament have become increasingly blatant in Japan. Such egregious acts, which deviate from the pacifist constitution and challenge the international order, pose a major threat to regional and global security.
The Sanae Takaichi government's repeated broaching of highly sensitive nuclear issues cannot be separated from the instigation and public deception by right-wing forces in Japan. During the House of Councillors election held in July 2025, a candidate from the extreme right-wing party Sanseitō blatantly declared that nuclear armament is one of the most economical and effective ways to strengthen security guarantees.
In a Mainichi Shimbun questionnaire survey of newly elected members of the House of Councillors, as many as eight respondents explicitly stated that Japan should possess nuclear weapons. As the only country to have suffered atomic bombings, Japan's post-war "nuclear taboo" has long been deeply entrenched. The fact that its political figures now dare to openly advocate for nuclear armament fully reflects that the pacifist foundation of Japanese society has been severely eroded.
The frequent clamor by Japan's right-wing forces for nuclear armament is largely predicated upon the country's possession of a massive stockpile of nuclear materials and latent nuclear technological capabilities. Japan is the only non-nuclear-weapon state that possesses a complete nuclear fuel cycle system, with key nuclear capabilities including uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing, and nuclear material purification. According to verification conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Japan's total separated plutonium stockpile under domestic and overseas control stands at 44.4 metric tons, theoretically enough to produce thousands of nuclear warheads.
Japan's extremely dangerous nuclear drive is not merely a matter of security considerations. Rather, its roots run deep historically, politically, and socially.
First, it is driven by historical revisionism. Japanese right-wing forces refuse to reflect on Japan's history of aggression, deny the legitimacy of the Tokyo Trial, and seek to break free from the constraints of the post-war order. They regard nuclear armament as the ultimate shortcut to achieving "national normalization" and re-establishing Japan as a major military power.
Second, it is manipulated by right-wing populism. To win votes, certain Japanese politicians deliberately stoke nationalism and security anxieties, reducing the complex issue of nuclear armament to a simplistic political slogan for strengthening security. They disregard the catastrophic consequences of nuclear proliferation and cater to right-leaning constituents with extreme positions, gradually eroding Japan's pacifist consensus.
The third is the waning of pacifism. Post-war anti-nuclear sentiment in Japan has been deeply rooted in the historical memory of the atomic bombings. However, as the generation that personally experienced the war and the nuclear attacks passes away, the younger generation, lacking a visceral understanding of that history, has become susceptible to the deceptive narratives propagated by right-wing media. As the social foundation of anti-nuclear sentiment continues to erode, space has been opened for pro-nuclear rhetoric to flourish.
The fourth is anxiety over reliance on the US for security. Japanese right-wing forces, concerned about a potential US strategic contraction in the Asia-Pacific region and a perceived decline in the effectiveness of extended deterrence, are seeking to break free from military dependence on the US through independent nuclear armament, aiming for strategic autonomy and, in turn, regional hegemony.
It should be noted that nuclear weapons are by no means the effective means to strengthen security as Japan's right-wing forces claim. Rather, they are a wrong choice that will lead the country into a disastrous situation from which it cannot recover. At the regional level, Japan's possession of nuclear weapons would completely break the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, lead to a complete loss of control over the risk of regional nuclear proliferation, and significantly increase the likelihood that conventional frictions could escalate into nuclear conflicts. At the international level, as a state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Japan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would dismantle the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, encourage more countries to cross the nuclear threshold, and completely reverse the global nuclear disarmament process. Japan itself would also face the dual dilemmas of diplomatic isolation and economic collapse. In the face of Japan's nuclear threat, neighboring countries will have to take corresponding measures to hedge against security risks.
The Sanae Takaichi government's attempt to loosen the Three Non-Nuclear Principles fully exposes its underlying political nature of extreme adventurism and opportunism. Japan's choice to pursue nuclear armament is a road to nowhere. Any reckless move to breach the nuclear taboo will inevitably draw the high vigilance and resolute opposition from all peace-loving countries.
(The author is from the China Institute of International Studies)