By Li Xiaobo

The Japanese government on April 21 formally revised the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and their implementation guidelines at a cabinet meeting, in principle allowing the export of lethal weapons. Some analysts believe that this revision of arms export rules marks a major turning point in Japan's security policy.

Why is Japan easing restrictions on arms exports?

In 2014, the Japanese government replaced the Three Principles on Arms Exports and Their Related Policy Guidelines established in 1967 with the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, thereby loosening long-standing restrictions on weapons exports. Nevertheless, under that framework, Japan still limited exports to five non-lethal equipment, including rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and mine-clearing.

With this latest revision, Japan has formally removed those constraints, in principle allowing the export of finished weapons systems, including lethal weapons. At the same time, the new rules stipulate that, under certain conditions, Japan may even permit arms exports to countries involved in ongoing conflicts. In addition, parliamentary review, previously regarded as a "braking mechanism" on arms exports, will now be reduced to post hoc notification.

Military observer Shao Yongling noted that this adjustment essentially represents a key step for Japan to break through postwar constraints and extend its military capabilities overseas. After the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology were introduced in 2014, Japan exported surveillance radars to the Philippines, marking its first breakthrough in arms exports under the new framework. In 2022, Japan went a step further by providing equipment such as bulletproof vests and helmets to Ukraine, a party to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In December 2023, Japan officially permitted the export of finished lethal weapons to countries it authorizes, including systems such as the Patriot air defense missile jointly produced with the US. The new rules introduced in April 2026, which in principle allow the export of lethal weapons, signify that the three principles on arms export established in 1967 have effectively been abandoned.

From the current trajectory, Japan now faces virtually no legal constraints on defense equipment exports. For Japan's domestic defense industry, overseas arms sales can help offset persistently high production costs. More importantly, arms exports are not merely commercial transactions. They also serve to deepen military cooperation with other countries, thereby enhancing Japan's influence in the international arena.

What is behind Japan's accelerated push for remilitarization?

Since Sanae Takaichi took office, Japan has been moving rapidly down a path of remilitarization, continuously breaking through long-standing postwar defense constraints and loosening restrictions related to military activities. Shao Yongling noted that Japan's pacifist constitution clearly stipulates that the country does not possess the right of belligerency, and these constraints were also an important foundation for Japan's postwar economic growth. However, in recent years, with the rise of right-wing forces, Japan has steadily pushed beyond the constitutional framework in pursuit of rearmament, significantly increasing efforts to promote arms exports and engaging in negotiations with multiple countries on related deals.

Previously, Japan had stated its intention to raise defense spending to 2 percent of GDP by fiscal year 2027, but this target has already been achieved ahead of schedule. At present, Japan's defense budget has reached 9 trillion yen. Going forward, the Sanae Takaichi cabinet is expected to continue advancing constitutional revision in an attempt to remove the ultimate postwar constraints on Japan's military development. Japan is increasingly likely to return to a militarist path, with a clear trend toward becoming a neo-militarist state.

Japan may become a "powder keg" in the Asia-Pacific?

The Japanese government's moves have already triggered criticism and sustained protests at home, with opponents arguing that they undermine the pacifist constitution. Some Japanese scholars have even warned that Japan risks becoming a country that exports war. Shao Yongling further pointed out that Japan's recent series of "loosening" measures in the military domain has already made it one of the major sources of instability in the Asia-Pacific, warranting close vigilance from neighboring countries and the international community.

She also noted that while relations between the US and many NATO members are gradually drifting apart, Japan is becoming ever more tightly aligned with the US. As a result, Japan is likely to appear more frequently in various regional hotspot issues in the future. The US may even push Japan to the forefront, assigning it a more prominent role. Under such circumstances, Japan could become a "powder keg" capable of triggering instability in the Asia-Pacific. Countries in the region should strengthen coordination, expose the true nature of Japan's actions that undermine global peace, and work together to safeguard regional peace and stability.

Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.