By Xiang Haoyu

The Japanese government has intensified its external push in the field of arms sales in recent days. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Australia, while Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi traveled to Indonesia and the Philippines, with both signing defense and security cooperation agreements with the governments of the countries they visited. 

These moves make clear that the Takaichi government is moving with growing urgency to build a multi-layered, cross-regional arms sales cooperation network across the Asia-Pacific. Japan's accelerated expansion of overseas defense cooperation represents not only another step away from the path of peaceful development, but also exposes its strategic ambition to bind regional countries through weapons and equipment standards and ultimately shape the regional security order in the Asia-Pacific.

At present, the Takaichi government's overseas arms sales strategy is shifting from cautious experimentation to full acceleration. From Japan's efforts to build a new arms sales network, it is evident that Tokyo is pursuing a differentiated approach toward different countries in the region, aiming to establish a tiered model of arms sales and defense integration.

For example, Australia, as a member of both the Five Eyes Alliance and the AUKUS partnership, occupies a special position in Japan's "Indo-Pacific" concept. Japan is focusing on deeper strategic alignment with Western-led blocs by promoting joint development of high-end defense equipment with Australia, as well as deeper integration of military-industrial production capacity and supporting systems. 

During Takaichi's visit to Australia, the two sides clearly outlined several priority areas in the Leaders Statement on Enhanced Defense and Security Cooperation, including co-development and co-production of defense capabilities, testing of new equipment and advanced weapons and emerging technologies, and the joint maintenance and sustainment of military assets. Japan's planned export of Mogami-class stealth frigates to Australia is intended to use the joint production and logistical support of advanced frontline warships to deeply integrate Japan's defense industry into the military-industrial supply chains of US allies, thereby opening the door to a broader overseas arms sales market.

For ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines, Japan's arms sales strategy is focused more on capability building, especially in the areas of so-called "maritime situational awareness" and "maritime law enforcement capabilities." Japan began providing military assistance and defense exports to the Philippines relatively early, consistently carrying the ulterior objective of stirring up tensions in the South China Sea. This approach also overlaps with the strategic demands of the Marcos administration. 

Japan-Philippines defense cooperation further extends across the entire chain of military collaboration, including education and training, logistics and maintenance support, inter-service operational coordination, and information sharing. In addition, the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) formally participated for the first time this year in the US-Philippines Balikatan live-fire exercise, and also conducted the first-ever launch of offensive missiles during the drills, demonstrating that Japan-Philippines military integration is continuing to deepen. In other words, Japan may be attempting to use military aid and arms sales to firmly bind the Philippines to a broader strategy of containing China through maritime means.

Under the banner of the so-called free and open Indo-Pacific, Japan is steadily expanding its regional arms sales network across the Asia-Pacific, a move that could have far-reaching implications for the regional security order. First, this approach is likely to trigger a regional arms race. Southeast Asia and Australia are not traditionally regions with dense deployment of high-end frontline surface combatants. Japan's export of large-scale combat vessels to Australia and the Philippines will inevitably disrupt the existing regional military balance. As neighboring countries experience heightened security concerns, they will likely respond by pursuing equivalent or even more advanced military capabilities.

Second, the pan-securitization of economic and trade issues undermines broader regional cooperation. During her visit to Australia, Takaichi placed strong emphasis on "resilience" in supply chains of areas such as energy, critical minerals, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, while attempting to tightly link "economic security" with defense cooperation. In essence, this reflects an effort to establish exclusive supply chain arrangements and promote a regional economic-security architecture characterized by efforts to exclude China from regional supply chains. Such an approach risks disrupting ongoing efforts by regional countries to deepen economic integration and trade cooperation.

Third, it increases the risk of confrontation and conflict in the region. In the past, Japan's security cooperation with Southeast Asian countries was mainly concentrated in non-traditional security areas, such as disaster prevention and relief, counter-terrorism, and transnational crime control. However, with the entry into force of the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement and the signing of various defense equipment transfer arrangements, Japan's military reach is likely to extend further into operational domains such as joint command structures and intelligence sharing with regional countries. Such deep military penetration will inevitably complicate already sensitive and complex regional hotspots and flashpoints, making the management of geopolitical risks more difficult.

The Asia-Pacific region needs cooperative mechanisms that promote economic prosperity and mutual security trust, rather than a "new Cold War" framework built on exclusive military networks. Regional countries should remain highly vigilant against Japan's strategic adventurism, which elevates its own defense industry interests and geopolitical calculations above regional peace and stability.

(The author is a distinguished research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.