The draft of the Japanese government's 2026 defense white paper was made public recently. This marks the first annual defense white paper since Sanae Takaichi took office as the Japanese Prime Minister. The draft focuses heavily on hyping up the so-called "China threat" theory. Kyodo News reported that the white paper will be submitted to the Japanese cabinet meeting as early as July this year.

Xiang Haoyu, a distinguished research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), analyzed that in essence, this is a political and public opinion operation by Japan to further breach postwar military red lines and accelerate its remilitarization.

First, by distorting China's normal far-sea training in the Pacific Ocean and rights-protection operations around the Taiwan Strait as security threats, Japan is actually paving the way for the Takaichi administration to revise its three key security documents, including the National Security Strategy, by the end of this year. Japanese media recently reported that the Takaichi administration seeks to officially label China as a "threat" in the new versions of these documents. Disclosing such contents through the defense white paper at this stage serves as a media leak and a trial balloon to test public opinion.

Second, by exaggerating external threats, the Takaichi administration attempts to manufacture a sense of security crisis at home, thereby justifying its agenda of military buildup and expansion. Japan's defense budget for fiscal year 2026 has exceeded 9 trillion yen, approaching 2% of its GDP. The Takaichi administration reportedly hopes to further raise this ratio to 3.5% or even 5% in future strategic documents, aligning with the latest NATO standards. This move is essentially aimed at clearing domestic legal and institutional hurdles for substantial military expansion, arms exports, and even overseas troop deployments.

Third, hyping up the so-called "China threat" theory has become a hackneyed tactic for Japanese right-wing forces to achieve political breakthroughs and forge domestic consensus for their constitutional revision agenda. Under the pretext of "national normalization," provoking a sense of crisis among the Japanese public through the "China threat" rhetoric is essentially intended to deflect domestic contradictions and serve Japan's ambition to shake off its status as a defeated nation and pursue the status of a major military power.

Xiang pointed out that the draft of the new defense white paper echoes the continuous and substantial growth of Japan's current defense budget. The initial defense budget for fiscal year 2026 has exceeded 9 trillion yen, primarily allocated to building offensive capabilities, such as the independent R&D and procurement of long-range offensive missiles, the development of hypersonic weapons, and the enhancement of space military capabilities. Meanwhile, Japan will significantly increase the frequency of joint exercises and training with the US and other allies, extending the operational scope of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) from Japan's periphery to the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the South Pacific, and even globally. This essentially drives an offensive shift in Japan's military strategy toward active external intervention, completely abandoning its "exclusively defense-oriented" principle.

Xiang believes that by inciting the so-called "China threat" theory, Japan seeks to deeply interfere in Taiwan Strait affairs, establish a "linkage mechanism" over the Taiwan Strait with certain Western countries, and push for the internationalization and militarization of the South China Sea issue. These moves are further exacerbating regional tensions and increasing the risk of accidental conflicts. If Japan's actions are not curbed in time, they will deliver a multifaceted blow to East Asian and even global security, risking the subversion of the postwar international peace order. 

Editor's note: Originally published on news.cri.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.