By Yu Lan

The draft of Japan's 2026 defense white paper was recently exposed by the media, which is the first defense white paper to be released since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office. The draft hypes up the so-called "China threat theory," distorts China's normal activities in the Pacific Ocean into "security threats," and expresses vigilance.

Dangerous ambitions

The draft immediately triggered widespread questioning upon exposure. The Japanese side accused China of a "lack of transparency" in defense spending, a claim widely viewed by public opinion as absurd. Data shows that Japan's per capita defense expenditure has reached three times that of China, while the defense spending per member of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) is more than double that of China.

Military observer Teng Jianqun noted that the Sanae Takaichi government is stubbornly pushing forward with "remilitarization" while making false counter-accusations to arbitrarily criticize other countries' normal national defense development and legitimate rights protection activities, fully revealing its ambitions. In essence, Japan has once again hyped up China's military spending while remaining silent about its own military expansion and war preparations, which clearly has dual purposes. By sensationalizing the so-called "China threat" theory, Japan aims, on the one hand, to make Japanese taxpayers pay more, and on the other hand, to rally countries including the United States to stir up troubles in the Asia-Pacific region.

Pretext for public opinion manipulation

Various signs indicate that Japan's so-called "exclusively defense-oriented" principle exists in name only. Under the pretext of the so-called "China threat," Japan is attempting to create pretexts in public opinion for its continuous military expansion and war preparations, strengthening external military alignment, and intervening in regional affairs.

Experts pointed out that Japan knows it cannot counter China alone, so it continues to form cliques, such as establishing the US-Japan-India-Australia Quad mechanism, and frequently interacting with NATO recently. Meanwhile, Japan presented a "pledge of loyalty" to the US by moving forward its goal of raising military spending to 2% of its GDP, and even proposed increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP to please the US. Japan's primary purpose is to draw relevant countries to stir up troubles in the Asia-Pacific region, advocating for its so-called "state normalization" and militarism.

By treating China as an adversary, Japan can also further gain overseas markets, such as exporting lethal weapons to Southeast Asian countries and frigates to Australia, thereby forming a chain of policies.

Backfiring on itself

It is learned that this white paper will be submitted to the Japanese cabinet meeting for review as early as July this year. On the very day the draft was exposed, some Tokyo residents held a rally in front of the Japanese Prime Minister's official residence to protest against the Takaichi administration's dangerous moves to accelerate military expansion and constitutional revision.

Experts noted that the moves of Japan's right-wing forces to promote constitutional amendment and accelerate "remilitarization" are unpopular, which will not only severely worsen the regional security situation but also backfire on Japan itself. Whether it is Japan's policy choices or its growing right-wing tendency at home, it will bring Japan into a very dangerous situation. Japan may provoke regional countries and even attempt to resolve so-called disputes by force.

At present, the situation in Northeast Asia is generally stable and peaceful, but it could be impacted by Japan's militarist tendencies. Therefore, regional countries must maintain high vigilance and also make clear responses to Japan's restoration of militarist policies.

Editor's note: Originally published on news.cri.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.