By Zhang Hua

U.S. President Donald Trump paid a state visit to China in mid-May. During the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state, the two sides identified building a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability as the new positioning of China-US relations. After concluding his visit to China, Trump said in an interview with foreign media that "I'm not looking to have somebody go independent, and you know we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that." On May 19, Acting US Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao further stated during a congressional hearing that, due to the need to prioritize ammunition supplies for Operation Epic Fury against Iran, the US is temporarily suspending a $14 billion arms sale package to Taiwan.

Trump's recent words and actions on the Taiwan question following his visit to China are markedly different from before. During his first term, Trump unprecedentedly defined China as a "strategic competitor," adopted a comprehensive strategy to contain China, and aggressively played the "Taiwan card" against China. Within just four years, US arms sales to Taiwan reached $18.3 billion. The Biden administration continued the China containment strategy pursued during Trump's first term and on five occasions claimed it would "defend Taiwan," while arms sales to Taiwan also totaled $8.4 billion.

Although Trump's latest visit to China is unlikely to reverse the political climate of containing China in the US in the short term, nor will it lead the US to stop arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the spirit of the August 17 Communiqué, the new positioning of China-US relations and the Trump administration's statements and actions on the Taiwan question are widely viewed as unprecedented. They indicate that the US policy toward the Taiwan Strait is undergoing a major shift and send an important signal that the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces are gradually changing from the US' "pawn" to its "discarded piece."

The reason the Trump administration has made such major adjustments to its Taiwan policy fundamentally lies in the need to align with US strategic and practical interests. By achieving constructive strategic stability in China-US relations and playing the "Taiwan card" less aggressively, Trump can make use of China's international influence to address strategic challenges in regions such as the Middle East and South America, obtain substantial economic benefits from China-US trade and investment, and even better position himself for the midterm elections later this year.

This has triggered strong reactions within Taiwan. Although the Lai Ching-te authorities continue to claim that the US policy toward Taiwan has not changed and even express gratitude to the US for reaffirming the maintenance of the status quo, their underlying anxiety is obvious.

Although the recall campaign against Lai initiated by the blue and white camps ultimately failed to pass a vote in the legislative body due to institutional factors, Lai nevertheless became the first sitting leader of the Taiwan region to face impeachment proceedings and enter a recall vote process, leaving himself permanently marked by political disgrace in history.

At the same time, discussion on the island surrounding doubts about the US has once again intensified, with growing belief that the US is fundamentally unreliable. As a result, calls for the Lai authorities to change their mainland policy have become even stronger, with many hoping cross-Strait relations can return to the path of peaceful development. According to the latest opinion polls in Taiwan, 80.3% of respondents agree that cross-Strait issues should be resolved peacefully through consultation.

It must be pointed out that Lai's stubborn and uncompromising character indicates that he will never change his separatist and provocative agenda aimed at seeking the so-called "Taiwan independence." Therefore, for some time to come, cross-Strait relations will likely continue to face challenges. However, the mainland's overwhelming strength advantage regarding Taiwan, together with its correct policies and strategies toward Taiwan, determines that "Taiwan independence" can never succeed, and any separatist provocation seeking the so-called "Taiwan independence" is destined to end in total failure. The mainland firmly holds the initiative and the leading role in cross-Strait relations, and is fully capable of safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait while steadily advancing the process of national reunification.

(The author is director and research fellow of the political economy research department at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.