By Xiang Haoyu

Japanese media exposed the draft of Japan's 2026 defense white paper lately. The draft not only steps up its malicious provocation against China but also upgrades its so-called measures to respond to the "China threat." Since the release of the new three security documents at the end of 2022, Japan has positioned China as "the most significant and unprecedented strategic challenge" since the end of WWII and has used the annual defense white paper to hype up the "China threat." It is not surprising that the Sanae Takaichi administration engages in such rhetoric, but the problem arises when maliciously provoking China is turned into a convenient tool and serves the strategic adventurism agenda of Japan's right-wing ruling authorities without scruples. In this context, people must be alert: where exactly is Japan heading?

It is obvious that Japan's purpose in hyping up the "China threat" is to find a legitimate excuse for its military expansion. As early as the 2023 defense white paper, the Japanese government already claimed that it "faces the most severe and complex security environment since the end of WWII" and declared that Japan has entered an era of "fundamentally reinforcing its defense capabilities."Meanwhile, Japanese defense documents have become increasingly explicit and blunt in targeting China. In the white papers of the past few years, the chapters devoted to elaborating on China's national defense policy and military developments have all exceeded 30 pages, making them the longest among all countries. Moreover, the text is permeated with negative rhetoric.

The accusation in this year's draft that China increases its military spending "without transparency" is actually a repetition of clichés. Correspondingly, Japan's "remilitarization" process is accelerating, with defense spending doubling in just four years. Its military development is increasingly shifting towards an offensive and outward-oriented posture, and the "exclusively defense-oriented" principle that Japan has long adhered to since the end of WWII now exists in name only.

The new draft white paper inherits the previous narrative framework on China, and its assessment of the external security environment remains full of ideological confrontation and geopolitical competition. The draft particularly emphasizes the need for close coordination with allies and like-minded countries in facing China. This practice of forming cliques and "small circles" once again exposes Japan's strategic paranoia of drawing ideological lines and clinging to the Cold War mentality. More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, Japanese policy elites remain trapped in a security concept of zero-sum games and bloc confrontation. 

As for cooperation with "like-minded countries," it is nothing more than a springboard for Japan to further advance its hidden agenda and expand its overseas military and security influence. Japan forms cliques, sells arms to regional countries, introduces extra-regional forces such as NATO into the Asia-Pacific, and seeks to build a multilateral military network centered on containing China. These actions indicate that its defense policy is by no means aimed solely at maintaining so-called "national security."

The draft of Japan's new defense white paper exudes a dangerous atmosphere, indicating that Japan's security policy has not only become more radical but also contains an uncontrollable impulse for military adventurism. In recent years, Japan has explicitly stated in its defense white paper that European security and "Indo-Pacific" security are inseparable. On the Taiwan question, it has vigorously hyped up the Chinese mainland's so-called military "coercion" against Taiwan and blatantly emboldened "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. Against the backdrop that Takaichi made erroneous remarks regarding Taiwan, expressed her ambition for military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, and refused to retract them, if Japan's new defense white paper continues this policy orientation of "containing China with Taiwan," the message it sends to the outside world will be even more alarming.

The offensive capabilities that Japan is currently developing may destroy the hard-won, fragile security mutual trust in Northeast Asia. The impulse toward strategic adventurism shown by the Takaichi administration will never bring real security to Japan. Instead, it will only push the entire Northeast Asia region into a dangerous situation of long-term confrontation, and the first to suffer the backlash will be Japan's own security interests and the well-being of its people.

(The author is a distinguished research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.