By Yu Shuangping and Liu Shigang
Japan and the Philippines formally launched negotiations on a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and announced the elevation of bilateral relations to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The two sides also agreed to accelerate defense equipment transfers and further strengthen cooperation between their coast guard forces. In recent years, security and defense cooperation between Japan and the Philippines has intensified. In particular, Japan has gradually loosened its restrictions on arms exports, substantially expanded weapons transfers to the Philippines, advanced bilateral logistics support and intelligence-sharing arrangements, and conducted frequent joint exercises and training activities. These developments have seriously undermined peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
In September last year, the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement officially entered into force, marking a major breakthrough in military relations between the two countries. Under the agreement, the Philippines allows members of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to enter and be stationed at Philippine military bases during exercises and training activities. Japan, in turn, permits Philippine military personnel to enter Japan to participate in bilateral and multilateral exercises organized by the JSDF, either independently or jointly with the US Forces Japan (USFJ). In January this year, the two sides signed the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), facilitating logistical support and the sharing of key resources, including fuel, food, and ammunition, between the JSDF and the Philippine military. With negotiations on the GSOMIA now underway, the Japan-Philippines quasi-alliance is rapidly taking shape.
During this year's Balikatan joint military exercise, Japan for the first time deployed a formed operational force overseas for extensive participation, committing about 1,400 personnel from its Ground Self-Defense Force, Maritime Self-Defense Force, Air Self-Defense Force, as well as cyber and medical units. It also launched two Type 88 shore-based anti-ship missiles on Philippine territory for the first time. In addition, Japan has strengthened its strategic alignment with the Philippines through assistance mechanisms. For three consecutive years, Japan has provided defense equipment to the Philippines free of charge under its Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework, and further assistance is expected in fiscal year 2026.
On one hand, Japan's growing defense cooperation with the Philippines is driven by a desire to align with the US' strategic competition agenda, using the opportunity to ease domestic policy constraints and enhance its international political standing and geopolitical influence. On the other hand, it reflects an intention to secure a key strategic foothold and expand its involvement in regional security affairs. The Philippines sits astride the Bashi Channel, the Balintang Channel, and the Balabac Strait. It is therefore both a key node in Japan's maritime transport routes and an important strategic pivot in the US' global posture, giving it significant geostrategic value. Japan's strengthening defense cooperation with the Philippines reflects not only an effort to enhance the security of sea lines of communication but also an intention to emulate the US by seeking access to overseas military facilities, laying the groundwork for potential future involvement in regional affairs alongside US operations.
However, Japan's calculations may not necessarily translate into favorable outcomes in practice. First, Japan-Philippines defense cooperation is constrained by divergent strategic interests, making it inherently unstable. There is a significant gap in economic strength between the two countries, and their respective development priorities and national agendas differ, which limits the scope for deeper defense cooperation. Japan's security assistance conditions and the Philippines' strategic demands are not necessarily aligned. In addition, Philippine domestic politics lacks policy consistency. While former President Rodrigo Duterte was reluctant to align closely with the US, current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted a more pro-US posture. A future change of administration following elections could therefore alter Manila's strategic orientation, potentially rendering Japan's calculations ineffective.
Second, Japan's continued alignment with the US in strengthening engagement with ASEAN runs counter to ASEAN's long-standing principle of balanced diplomacy. It undermines ASEAN's tradition of refusing to take sides in regional affairs and may even disrupt ASEAN's integration process, thereby destabilizing regional peace and stability.
History offers a clear warning. Many Asia-Pacific countries, including the Philippines, once suffered under Japanese militarism. Today, by tying itself to Japan's neo-militarism chariot, the Philippines is essentially courting danger. Rather than gaining benefits, it risks bringing trouble on itself. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region should remain vigilant, jointly curb the expansion of Japan's neo-militarism, and work together to safeguard the peace order on which their survival and development depend.
(The authors are from the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Sciences)