By Xie Siqiang
Recently, NATO held the "Ramstein Flag 2026" large-scale air force exercise. The exercise area covered countries bordering Russia, such as Finland and Norway, and assembled large-scale air power, prompting heightened international concern over the European geopolitical security landscape.
The "Ramstein Flag" exercise series began in 2024. Compared with the previous two, this iteration shows an increasingly obvious orientation toward actual combat in terms of scale, region, and content. In terms of scale, 19 NATO member countries participated in this exercise, mobilizing over 200 military aircraft includingF-35A/B fighters, Rafale fighters, E-3A Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), and RQ-4D drones, and conducting drills across more than 20 operational sites.
The exercise area extended from the northernmost tip of Norway to southern Spain, covering a vast region of Europe. The northern flank, with Norway as the core base, radiated to Nordic frontline airports in Sweden and Finland. The drill in this sector focused on large-scale supersonic flight in the Arctic direction and air combat confrontation in complex electromagnetic environments. The southern flank, with Spain as the hub, focused on aerial mission coordination in complex environments.
Regarding command patterns, while the previous two exercises were led by the host nation's air force, this one was independently led and commanded throughout by the NATO Allied Air Command for the first time, marking a transition from a "host nation-led" to an "alliance-led" model. In terms of operational concepts, this exercise placed greater emphasis on distributed operations and agile combat deployment, achieving "dispersed deployment, concentrated combat" through networked command and control systems to counter anti-access/area denial threats. In this regard, the commander of the NATO Allied Air Command stated that NATO is transforming from traditional air policing to highly flexible multi-domain air defense.
In three years, the "Ramstein Flag" exercise has completed a leap from tactical-level joint training to a strategic-level demonstration of deterrence, releasing multiple strategic signals.
The site selection for the exercise is highly targeted. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO in succession, conducting large-scale air force exercises in the skies over the more than 1,300-kilometer new border line not only helps the air forces of new members deeply integrate into NATO's large-scale joint operational system but also projects influence toward the northern flank, especially the Arctic direction, by moving the command hub to the Arctic frontier. In addition, this exercise echoes the "Arctic Sentry" operation launched in February this year, and it is also an important component of NATO's "Eastern Sentry" operation framework. Both "Arctic Sentry" and "Eastern Sentry" serve as strategic defense barriers established by NATO against Russia.
This exercise is also a measure to demonstrate alliance unity to the outside world. Currently, the strategic adjustment of the US brings uncertainty. The Trump administration's wavering attitude toward collective defense commitments and the contraction of aid to Ukraine are testing the alliance's cohesion. In July this year, the NATO summit will be held in Ankara, Türkiye. At that time, a 70-billion-euro military support package for Ukraine, being deliberated by NATO member states, may be announced. Holding large-scale joint military exercises at this time aims to send a signal of unity to the outside world.
This large-scale NATO military exercise near the Russia-Belarus border has triggered a tough response from both Russia and Belarus. The Russian Foreign Ministry has openly warned that the Union State of Russia and Belarus has been prepared touse "all means, including nuclear weapons," to safeguard the national security of the Union State. This will undoubtedly exacerbate the military confrontation between NATO and Russia, trapping both sides in a vicious cycle of "pressure and countermeasures" and significantly increasing the risk of strategic miscalculation.
As the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe(CFE) and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)have successively become ineffective, the dual absence of nuclear arms control and crisis management mechanisms has increasingly weakened the mutual trust between Europe and Russia in security. The escalating forward deployments and deterrence signals are making the regional security situation more complex, posing a serious threat to regional peace and stability.
(The author is with the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Sciences.)