By Xu Yongzhi

The Nikkei reported on July 18 that as the Japanese government plans to revise its three security documents by the end of the year, it is seeking to strengthen the US "nuclear umbrella". It also absurdly claimed that if China continues its "shows of force", such as ballistic missile test launches, calls in Japan to re-examine the Three Non-Nuclear Principles are likely to grow louder.

In fact, long before China conducted its routine test launch training, Japan had already been discussing revisions to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. From the approval in June by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of a proposal to revise the three security documents (hereafter referred to as the "Proposal") to the recent wave of media speculation by Japanese outlets, the strategic trajectory of Japan's nuclear impulses has long been evident. The Japanese government's far-fetched public opinion campaign will only make its words and deeds all the more contemptible.

The so-called upgrading of the "nuclear umbrella" and the loosening of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles are merely the most conspicuous manifestations of the transformation of Japan's security strategy. Viewed in light of the Proposal issued by the LDP, Japan's roadmap for military expansion is already clear, and its nuclear impulses are the natural outcome of this trajectory.

First, the wholesale militarization of Japan's security strategy is paving the way for the relaxation of its nuclear policy. Japan's National Security Strategy is supposed to be a comprehensive strategy encompassing diplomacy, defense, the economy, science and technology, and other fields. Yet the Proposal and recent related discussions have focused almost exclusively on military affairs, while diplomatic means have been marginalized. This shift from "comprehensive security" to "military primacy" is precisely what has created fertile ground for Japan's nuclear impulses.

Second, planning military intervention in the Taiwan Strait is the real driver behind Japan's pursuit of enhanced nuclear capabilities. After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made fallacious remarks on Taiwan and the Chinese side responded with countermeasures, the LDP not only failed to reflect on its actions but instead went even further down the wrong path. The Proposal further calls for enabling the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to sustain combat operations for years, purportedly to guard against the so-called risk of disruptions to navigation through major Asian straits.

Third, strengthening the US-Japan alliance, with nuclear sharing serving as a key bargaining chip to secure US support. On the one hand, the Proposal acknowledges the shift in the US approach toward its allies and argues that Japan should assume greater responsibility for its own defense. On the other hand, the Japan SDF have recently conducted repeated offensive military drills with US forces and neighboring countries, while using the Balikatan exercises to signal joint military operations under the "US-Japan + X" framework. Japan's real calculation is to secure continued US backing for its military ambitions by increasing its military contributions to the alliance and deepening bilateral nuclear cooperation. Strengthening the nuclear umbrella and even pursuing deeper nuclear sharing is, in essence, a strategy to hold the US hostage and use its nuclear deterrent to lend legitimacy to Japan's military adventurism, with its ultimate target being the Taiwan question and China-US strategic stability.

Fourth, pursuing disruptive military innovation, with the nuclear issue being just one aspect of its efforts to break through arms control constraints. In addition to testing the limits of its nuclear policy, Japan has made artificial intelligence (AI) and unmanned weapons top priorities in strengthening its military capabilities. The Proposal calls for using AI to process military intelligence, support operational decision-making, and controls warms of unmanned weapons, while fielding large numbers of lethal autonomous weapon systems. From autonomous weapon systems to the relaxation of its nuclear policy, Japan is pushing the limits across multiple arms control domains, and its nuclear impulses are merely one manifestation of its broader challenge to the international arms control order.

The Three Non-Nuclear Principles are an important cornerstone of Japan's post-war peaceful development and a crucial pillar of strategic stability in Northeast Asia. Once Japan rolls back its nuclear policy, it will not only directly fuel a regional nuclear arms race but also encourage it to adopt an even more aggressive stance on sensitive issues such as the Taiwan question. This means that Japan is likely to remain a spoiler of the regional order for the foreseeable future.

For a defeated nation burdened with the of aggression crimes, harboring nuclear impulses amounts to posing a grave threat to the world once again. While maintaining highly vigilant, the international community must also act promptly to curb Japan's dangerous tendency to pursue its objectives at any cost, restrain it through multilateral frameworks, and prevent the nuclear taboo from being broken and regional peace and stability from being undermined.

(The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.