By Li Zixin
The US-Israel-Iran war, which broke out on February 28, has dragged on for nearly half a year. Contrary to the expectations of the US and Israel, the conflict has not ended swiftly, but has instead proved more intense and protracted than anticipated. It has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and further worsened the humanitarian situation in the region. More profoundly, the conflict is reshaping regional alignments and rules in the Middle East, with far-reaching implications for the future regional order.
The Middle East security architecture is rapidly shifting from a US-led hub-and-spoke alliance system toward a multi-polar pattern of strategic competition, with traditional alliance ties showing signs of structural weakening. This is not the direct result of any single battle, but the cumulative effect of the strategic choices made by all parties over nearly six months of conflict. In fact, restoring eroded trust is harder than replenishing depleted weapons.
The relationship between the US and its traditional ally Israel is undergoing profound changes. On Gaza, Israel has openly opposed the peace plan proposed by the US-led Board of Peace. In Lebanon, the Israeli military has publicly declared that it will never withdraw from southern Lebanon. On Iran, Israel has retained the option of launching unilateral military action at any time and is even considering gradually reducing its reliance on US military assistance in pursuit of self-sufficiency in military equipment.
US dissatisfaction, in turn, has become increasingly public, with reports even suggesting heated exchanges between the leaders of the two countries. Israel's expanding operations on multiple fronts in the region are increasingly moving beyond the framework of US regional strategy. The US seeks to maintain its hegemony in the Middle East at a lower cost, while Israel pursues an absolute security advantage. The contradictions between their approaches to achieving these goals have been laid bare by the current conflict. To be sure, the US and Israel remain "close allies," and Israel remains a key extension of US hard-power deterrence and an important geopolitical foothold in the Middle East. Yet cracks in their "strategic understanding" have become increasingly evident.
The Gulf states are likewise accelerating their pursuit of greater defense autonomy. On August 7, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, establishing a collective defense framework. Although the agreement has yet to put in place institutional arrangements for joint action, its intent to emulate NATO's collective defense clause is evident. Gulf states are no longer content to rely on a single US security umbrella and are actively building diversified security partnerships. Meanwhile, although the Axis of Resistance has suffered heavy blows, it has not collapsed. Over the six months of conflict, Iran has swiftly reshuffled its military leadership, with hardliners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gaining greater control over the country's military affairs. Iran's regional influence has demonstrated considerable strategic resilience.
Analysts have noted that the US remains the most powerful military force in the Middle East, but its capability and willingness to lead regional security affairs are gradually declining. For a long time, the US largely dominated efforts to resolve conflicts in the Middle East. Today, the emergence of parallel mediation by multiple parties is redefining the fundamental question of "who is qualified to prescribe solutions to conflicts in the Middle East."
In the past, the US had a near-monopoly on mediating Middle East conflicts, occasionally sharing that role with Russia. Regional countries also participated, but mainly acted as intermediaries relaying messages and rarely put forward comprehensive and workable solutions backed by credible guarantees. However, the final text of the memorandum of understanding reached by the US and Iran in June was coordinated and consolidated by Pakistan through intensive diplomatic mediation. It contains a complete mechanism with such arrangements as a 60-day window, phased implementation, and the relay of terms through intermediaries.
Notably, by signing the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, Türkiye has secured an important channel for involvement in regional crises through a collective security framework, while retaining direct communication with both the US and Iran. Analysts have noted that mediation based on security interests and underpinned by multilateral frameworks is emerging as a new model for regional powers to engage in conflict management.
This conflict, now in its sixth month, is accelerating the Middle East's transition from the old order to a new regional landscape. Whatever course the conflict takes, one thing is certain: the reshaping of the Middle East order is already underway.
(The author is from China Institute of International Studies)