By Ling Yunzhi

According to reports, the United States and Japan are holding the "Keen Sword 27" joint exercise in Japan from October 19 to 29. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) deploys approximately 45,000 personnel, 6,100 vehicles, 40 vessels and 260 aircraft. Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the Philippines are also participating as observers or in selected drills.

For the first time, the United States and Japan will forward-deploy long-range strike weapons during the exercise, shifting its focus from traditional "remote island defense" toward "distributed forward deterrence." This signals that the US-Japan alliance is moving from a defensive posture toward an offensive forward presence. It also reflects the two countries' strong desire to deepen their strategic alignment under the "Indo-Pacific" strategy framework.

Exercise shifts from "remote island defense" to "distributed forward deterrence"

The most notable change in the "Keen Sword 27" exercise is that its training focus has shifted comprehensively from traditional air-maritime coordination and regional air defense to real combat drills centered on "remote island defense" and "maritime and air reinforcement." The Japan Ground Self Defense Force (JGSDF)'s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade will conduct amphibious landing drills, supported by a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) task group comprising one Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer, two destroyers, one Mogami-class frigate and other vessels. The exercise will also include integrated logistics drills. These drills indicate that the exercise is no longer "general-purpose training," but a realistic rehearsal for conflict scenarios involving the First Island Chain.

In addition, the United States and Japan will, for the first time, forward-deploy long-range strike weapons during the exercise. The US military will deploy the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and the Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS) on Yonaguni Island for the first time. Japan will also deploy Type 88 surface-to-ship missiles, Type 25 surface-to-ship missiles and Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air missiles. The Type 25 surface-to-ship missile will make its debut, with a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers. The forward deployment of long-range strike weapons signals a shift from traditional "remote island defense" to "distributed forward deterrence." It also transforms Yonaguni Island from a "surveillance outpost" into a "firepower node" capable of direct strikes, driving military deployments along the First Island Chain from the function of "information gathering" toward "firepower denial."

Combined deterrence caught in the "more deterrence, less security" paradox

From a military security perspective, the exercise will exacerbate the arms race in the Western Pacific. By concentrating long-range offensive weapons on outlying islands such as Yonaguni and Ishigaki, the US and Japan not only pose a serious threat to the security of neighboring countries' sea lanes, but also turn Japan's southwestern islands from a relatively tranquil rear area into a potential frontline of conflict.

Meanwhile, although the "Keen Sword 27" exercise is primarily bilateral, it remains subject to the practical constraints of US global force deployments. The repeated absence of US aircraft carriers from recent US-Japan-ROK "Freedom Edge" exercises suggests that difficulties in allocating US military forces are undermining the credibility of the deterrence signals the US military seeks to send through its forward presence. This, in turn, increases the risk of the United States itself being drawn into a conflict, creating a paradox in which greater deterrence produces less security.

From the perspective of strategic stability, the exercise is also changing the foundations of the regional balance of power. Russia has explicitly stated that Japan's deployment of long-range strike weapons during the exercise would cause the joint drills to "lose their defensive nature," making them a significant factor affecting regional security and potentially triggering further chain reactions.

From the perspective of regional order, the exercise shows an alarming trend toward increasing participants. Australia, Canada and several European countries are participating in various capacities, indicating that the US is seeking to "multilateralize" and "internationalize" security issues in the Western Pacific. Such bloc-building will do little to foster mutual trust on regional security. Instead, it may drag the Asia-Pacific into the quagmire of bloc confrontation and arms race.

Editor's Note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.