By Yao Yitong

From steadily hiking defense budgets and revising the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology," to packaging defense-industrial expansion as an economic growth driver in its 2026 Defense White Paper, Japan's military-industrial complex is seizing every opportunity to expand. In recent years, Japanese defense contractors, defense authorities, and right-wing political forces have colluded to forge an entrenched interest alliance—one that is systematically tearing apart the post-war peaceful order and posing systemic risks to global security and stability.

Today, Japan boasts thousands of defense supply-chain enterprises, with industrial giants like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries manufacturing naval vessels, long-range missiles, and military aircraft. In fiscal year 2025, defense machinery orders from Japan's Ministry of Defense reached approximately 2.69 trillion yen—a nearly threefold increase over five years. For FY2026, the defense budget exceeded 9 trillion yen, pushing military spending to 2 percent of GDP. Since taking office, the Takaichi administration has elevated defense industry revitalization to a core national economic strategy, planning a dedicated agency for arms export support modeled after the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, tightly aligning the interests of the government, defense ministry, and defense contractors.

The profit-driven nature of Japan's military-industrial complex is driving the Japanese government to accelerate the easing of arms export curbs, inflicting severe, tangible risks.

First, it directly undermines the post-war international order and regional security and stability. By lifting bans on lethal arms exports, Japan blatantly violates relevant provisions of international legal instruments such as the Potsdam Declaration and challenges the post-war international architecture. Supplying naval combatants, maritime surveillance radars, and other hardware to Southeast Asian nations will inflame regional arms races, heighten maritime confrontation risks, and destabilize the relatively stable regional security landscape.

Second, the interest chain of Japan's military-industrial complex is hijacking national policy, raising the grave risk of repeating history. To absorb excess capacity through overseas markets, defense capital persistently lobbies authorities to loosen export controls. Seeking "major military power" status, the Japanese government subsidizes the defense economy by ramping up defense budgets and pursuing active "arms diplomacy." Concurrently, the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) uses the momentum to secure larger procurement funds. This tripartite feedback loop creates a structural cycle in which military-industrial capital hijacks state policy, serving as an endogenous engine for Japanese military expansion—a pattern chillingly reminiscent of Japanese militarism before World War II, posing the danger of repeating history.

Third, it directly destabilizes the global arms control regime. As a major aggressor in World War II, Japan ought to exercise extreme restraint in exporting arms to conflict zones. Instead, it is carving out export channels while gutting domestic checks and external oversight. Should Japanese weaponry flood conflict regions, it will exacerbate warfare and deepen humanitarian crises. Furthermore, by exporting critical precision components, Japan could weaponize supply cutoffs to coerce other countries into shifting their diplomatic positions, thereby exerting covert leverage over global defense technology.

Once the interest network of Japan's military-industrial complex hardens, its capital-driven urge for expansion will only intensify. Japan's trajectory directly defies the post-war international order built upon the victory of World War II and gravely imperils regional and global stability. All peace-loving forces worldwide must stay vigilant against the resurgence of Japan's "war economy" and unite to rein in the expansion of Japan's military-industrial complex through all necessary means.