By Yu Lan
US President Donald Trump has recently ordered the immediate resumption of nuclear testing, a move that has drawn intense international attention. Trump claimed that he was left with no choice but to make this decision. "Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately," Trump posted. Analysts believe this decision may be a response to Russia's recent announcement that it had test-launched a nuclear-powered cruise missile.
In this regard, military analyst Teng Jianqun pointed out that Trump's real intention is not only to ensure US dominance in the nuclear weapons field, but also to revitalize the country's nuclear industry as a driver of economic growth.
According to Teng, there are two main considerations. First, in Trump's view, nuclear weapons are a critical ultimate weapon and a key pillar of US national security. Second, he aims to revive America's nuclear industry through renewed testing. During the Obama administration, the workforce involved in nuclear testing was significantly reduced, leading to a massive loss of scientific expertise. Trump believes that revitalizing the economy and manufacturing sector requires a corresponding revival of the nuclear industry.
However, it remains unclear whether Trump's call for the US to immediately resume nuclear testing refers to a full-scale nuclear explosive test or simply a missile flight test. According to US nuclear experts, a nuclear explosive test typically requires several months of preparation, while a fully instrumented test capable of yielding comprehensive scientific data would take at least 18 months to organize. If Trump was referring to missile flight tests, the US already conducts such tests regularly.
Teng Jianqun holds that, from a technical standpoint, the US would face few obstacles to resuming nuclear explosive tests, but it would be constrained by international legal and moral considerations. Historically, the US has conducted far more nuclear tests than any other nuclear-armed state, so technically it is capable of carrying out such tests. The main barriers today are political. If the US were to go ahead with nuclear testing, it would confront a range of legal constraints and face serious moral opprobrium on the international stage. Persisting with tests regardless would not only severely damage America's moral standing but would also deal a heavy blow to the global non-proliferation regime.
On November 2 local time, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated that President Trump's recent order to resume nuclear weapons testing does not involve explosive tests, but rather system-level tests. This was the first official clarification from Washington regarding Trump's earlier announcement on restarting nuclear testing.
According to Teng, regardless of the form such tests take, the US move will likely trigger a domino effect, sparking a new round of nuclear arms competition and dealing a serious blow to the existing global nuclear arms control regime. First, if the US truly resumes nuclear testing, it could drive many countries onto the path of nuclear armament. Second, such actions would pose a grave challenge to existing international nuclear arms control frameworks, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and other related arms control and non-proliferation mechanisms. Third, it may trigger a chain reaction undermining strategic stability among major powers. Since nuclear testing is a key means of advancing nuclear weapons development, a US-led resumption of testing could erode the foundation of strategic balance among major powers, thereby inflicting severe shocks on regional security, international relations, and even the global ecological environment.
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.