By Zhong Sheng
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently visited the US. This diplomatic show, aimed at actively courting the US, has been widely criticized by Japanese public opinion. Visionary Japanese people pointed out that the Takaichi administration, disregarding the economy and people's livelihood, continues to push for constitutional revision, increase defense spending, and expand arms exports, while flattering the US under the pretext of strengthening deterrence, which is a completely wrong path. Using the hype of external geopolitical risks to cover domestic economic difficulties is merely a political smokescreen, and it further exposes the Japanese government's helplessness in macroeconomic governance.
Since taking office, Sanae Takaichi has pursued an aggressive policy line of "Takaichi economics." Under the banner of a so-called "responsible proactive fiscal policy," she places blind faith in large-scale fiscal spending and ultra-loose monetary policy, attempting to rely on the large enterprises’ trickle-down effect to reverse the economic downturn. However, in the face of the reality that a declining birthrate and an aging population have made labor shortages the norm and that the tax base continues to shrink, such a practice of living beyond means has already led to Japan's government debt exceeding 260 percent of its GDP, breaking through a high-risk warning line. At present, under the impact of geopolitical tensions and the situation in the Middle East, Japan is facing the combined pressure of rising oil costs and currency depreciation, with the impact rapidly spreading from the energy sector to multiple aspects of people's daily lives.
Japan's economic recovery has already been difficult, yet Takaichi insists on pursuing a militaristic and risky path, further increasing the burden on the public. The Takaichi administration is vigorously pushing for constitutional revision, military expansion and the loosening of military constraints, which is not only a geopolitical gamble, but also a dangerous economic strategy that attempts to revive militarism and return to the old path of stimulating economic growth through military demand.
The right-wing forces represented by Sanae Takaichi are paving the way for a substantial increase in defense spending by creating confrontation risks and endorsing a shift in industrial policy by amplifying security concerns, in an attempt to channel resources into key sectors under the name of "defense." There has long been a close transfer of interests between Japan's defense industry and the government, with massive defense orders being directed to domestic conglomerates. In 2023 alone, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries received orders worth as much as 1.68 trillion yen from the Japanese government. Senior officials of Japan's Ministry of Defense frequently take positions as special advisors or board members in companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries after retirement, using their knowledge of internal weapons procurement rules to help these companies secure lucrative projects.
After taking office, Sanae Takaichi advanced the target of raising defense spending to 2 percent of GDP to be achieved within fiscal year 2025. By the end of 2025, in the draft budget for fiscal year 2026 approved by the Japanese government, defense spending exceeded 9 trillion yen, marking the 14th consecutive annual increase. Through the continuous expansion of the defense budget, the alignment of interests between the bureaucratic system and the defense industry has been further consolidated.
The Takaichi administration also plans to relax restrictions on arms exports in an attempt to enable Japan to profit from weapons exports. For a long time, due to the constraints of the pacifist constitution, the defense business of Japan's major enterprises has relied solely on domestic orders. To this end, the Takaichi administration is actively seeking to lift restrictions on the export of lethal weapons and plans to fully relax controls on defense equipment exports, attempting to turn the defense industry into a major source of economic gains so as to break through the constraints of the post-war system. Once such external exports are opened up, Japan's military-industrial system will become more expansionary, creating conditions for right-wing forces to push forward radical policy adjustments such as constitutional revision and seeking involvement in international conflicts.
This set of measures by Takaichi may generate a short-term "defense bubble," but in essence it is increasingly tying Japan's economy to a path of neo-militarism, with the ultimate cost to be borne by the Japanese public. In the face of arms purchases from the US totaling as much as 3.55 trillion yen in recent years, Tokyo Shimbun questioned whether Japan should continue spending vast amounts of taxpayer money on US weapons, calling the trend an excessive "buying spree." To fill the ever-expanding defense budget, the Japanese government plans to implement tax increases involving tobacco tax, corporate tax and personal income tax, directly increasing the tax burden on domestic enterprises and households.
The Takaichi administration's obsession with militaristic adventurism is by no means a remedy for Japan's economic difficulties, but rather a policy that will further aggravate its economic problems. This political gamble, which attempts to conceal governance failure through arms orders and aggressive fiscal expansion, is destined to fail in resolving deeply rooted structural problems. Repeating the mistakes of militarism and attempting to forcibly drive growth by inciting confrontation will ultimately only push Japan into a more serious predicament.
Editor's note: Originally published on people.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.