By Jiu Xiao

The dark clouds hanging over the Atlantic have never truly lifted. Seven years after French President Emmanuel Macron warned of the "brain death" of NATO, his judgment has now proved prophetic with the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. The Russia-Ukraine conflict briefly gave NATO a semblance of revival, yet it has ultimately failed to withstand the fatal blow of America First. As transatlantic ties are repeatedly strained and torn apart, NATO, a Cold War relic, is once again sliding toward "brain death."

At the level of institutional operation, NATO's principle of collective defense is undergoing serious distortion. What was once a solemn commitment that "an attack on one is an attack on all" has now been reduced to a system in which "protection fees" must be paid in exchange for the "big brother's" shelter. These fees have even risen from 2% of GDP during Trump's first term to 5% in his second term. The US has repeatedly threatened and coerced Europe with warnings such as "no payment, no protection" and "no payment, no restraint on Russia." By downgrading collective defense into a security business, and even outright extortion, such practices have severely undermined the credibility of the North Atlantic Treaty. When the so-called "big brother" treats its security commitments as bargaining chips that can be withdrawn at will, rather than as unshakable obligations, it effectively signals that the transatlantic security community exists in name only.

If institutional distortion is an "external infection," the collapse of political trust is an "internal tumor." There was a time when NATO loudly portrayed itself as a political alliance built on shared democratic values, an ideological community. Today, however, that false façade has been completely torn away.

In Washington's eyes, allies are no longer strategic partners, but "blood bags" to be exploited. Trump has made no effort to conceal his contempt for allies' sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political dignity. He has repeatedly claimed that he would "turn Canada into the 51st state of the US" and "take over Greenland," giving rise to the absurd question of what happens when a NATO country attacks another NATO country. The UK, France, and Germany sent military personnel to Greenland to signal support for Denmark and the island, only to withdraw them swiftly after the US brandished its tariff stick. The transatlantic bond is no longer grounded in shared values, but in forced compromises driven by fear of the "big brother's" volatile moods. The alliance's internal mechanisms are steadily decaying.

The core pathology behind NATO's brain death lies in the alienation and separation between its "decision-making center" and its "operational body." The alliance is now trapped in a state of severe structural misalignment. NATO's "brain" is located in Washington, where decision-making logic is entirely subordinated to the unilateral interests of Making America Great Again. Its "body" is based in Europe, where the primary concern is strengthening the security front against Russia. However, the United States has largely disregarded Europe's security concerns. Every major decision related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, whether Biden-era policies of "fighting" or Trump's second-term emphasis on "negotiation," has been scripted in the White House and the Pentagon. European countries have little say over issues that directly affect their own security, let alone the ability to construct a balanced, effective, and sustainable European security architecture. At present, the US is shifting its strategic focus eastward and is forcefully pushing NATO beyond its traditional role as a regional and defensive organization toward an Asia-Pacific expansion, in an attempt to bind Europe to its strategy of containing China. Europe's long-standing position of avoiding bloc confrontation and refusing to take sides has once again been completely ignored by Washington. 

NATO's renewed "brain death" is not merely the result of the impact of America First, but an inevitable outcome of the decline and backlash of the Western hegemonic system itself. This outdated Cold War relic is ultimately destined to be discarded by the tide of history.

(The author is an observer of international affairs.)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.