By Meng Jun
Following the dispatch of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, a bomber task force, amphibious assault ships and the deployment of the Patriot missile defense system, the White House announced on May 24 that it would send additional 1,500 troops to the Middle East to deter “Iranian threats”. The troops will mainly carry out the “defensive missions” including the operation of missile defense systems, air surveillance and intelligence gathering. At the same time, the US President Donald Trump declared a national emergency that allowed the administration to bypass the Congress review process and sell $8.1 billion worth of weapons and services to countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, etc.
Analysts believe that the US military action against Iran is restricted by multiple objective factors, especially the 2020 US presidential election, the opposition from its European allies, and the possible difficulties in the operation. A limited-scale “surgical” strike against Iran may not be able to achieve substantial results. But a full-scale strike against Iran may bring endless trouble to the US, which not only would cost the US a lot of human, material and financial resources, but also might trap it in “war quagmire” again.
The current situation indicates that both the US and Iran will unlikely use force. However, both sides are strengthening military deployment around the clock and there is markedly increased tension between the two sides, the possibility of sparking a conflict by accident and the risk of military conflict are higher than ever. Moreover, it is more difficult to judge the true intention of the US since its government officials have continuously sent out mixed signals on whether to use force against Iran. Whatever, US’ increasing military deployment and arms sales has been regarded by Iran as a real threat.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 27 that the US’s additional deployment to Mideast will ramp up risks in the region. He hopes that the US can listen to the “reasonable voices” on the Iranian issue.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said that“Iran will not surrender to US pressure and will never abandon its goals even if it is attacked.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the US decision to deploy additional troops is a “threat to international peace and security”. This move has once again demonstrated US’s hostile policy towards Iran and its intention to “further escalate tensions in the Gulf region”.
The US frequently mentioned “war” and “deterrence”. One moment, the US talks about war, the next it wants negotiations. The main intention of its constant chopping and changing is to put “maximum pressure” on Iran from both psychological and military aspects, in an attempt to achieve chaos and change through pressure, thus to gain geopolitical interests. Analysts stressed that the US has repeated the drama of bulling and “maximum pressure” in many countries. Recently it began to wave a big stick at Iran and became a real “troublemaker” tearing apart and undermining the situation in Gulf region.
