Playing up space race highlights US's hegemonic thinking

土耳其缘何推迟北约北扩谈判?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2023-02-02 17:57:24

近日,土耳其外交部发布消息称,原定于2月举行的土耳其与瑞典、芬兰关于瑞、芬两国加入北约的三方会议已被无限期推迟。此举意味着瑞典和芬兰两国“打包”申请加入北约的进程,在批准程序方面受到严重阻碍。据悉,近期土耳其多次就瑞典允许土方认定的恐怖组织支持者和部分极右翼人士集会提出抗议。土耳其总统埃尔多安1月23日表示,土耳其不会为瑞典加入北约“开绿灯”。

The Turkish Foreign Ministry recently announced that the trilateral meeting with Sweden and Finland on their admission to NATO originally scheduled for February has been postponed indefinitely, throwing a spanner in the approval procedures for those two countries to join the organization as a package. It is learned that Turkey has repeatedly protested Sweden’s permission for what it has designated as terrorist organization supporters and right-wing extremists to gather in protest. Turkish president Erdogan said on January 23 that his country won’t greenlight Sweden’s admission to NATO.

北约扩张或暂时停滞

NATO’s expansion may be put on hold.

2022年5月,瑞典和芬兰以国家安全为由,同时向北约递交加入北约的申请。按照规程,北约须在30个成员国一致同意的情况下才能吸纳新成员,而土耳其是首个明确表达反对意见的北约国家。土耳其声称,由于瑞典长期支持土方认定的恐怖组织,土耳其无法批准瑞典加入北约。

Sweden and Finland both applied to join NATO in May 2022 on the grounds of national security. As a rule, the organization can only take in new members when a unanimous agreement is reached among all 30 existing members, and, as it turned out, Turkey is the first member to say no, citing Sweden’s consistent support for what it has designated as terrorist organizations.

在美欧多国多次斡旋下,土耳其、芬兰、瑞典三国于2022年6月举行的北约峰会上签署备忘录,确认土耳其原则上同意两国入约,芬兰和瑞典也表示不再支持库尔德工人党、叙利亚库尔德武装“人民保护部队”及“居伦运动”成员,并同意取消向土耳其出口国防设备的限制。此外,三国同意建立一个常设联合机制,以跟进落实备忘录,加强共同安全领域合作。此次被推迟的会议就是该机制第二次三方会晤。

Through rounds of mediation by the US and European countries, Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a memo at the NATO Summit held in June 2022. It affirmed that Turkey agreed on principle to their entry to the western alliance, while they no longer supported members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Syria’s Kurdish military group People’s Protection Units (YPG), and the Fethullah Gulen movement, in addition to lifting the defense equipment export ban against Ankara. The three countries also agreed to set up a regular mechanism to follow upon the implementation of the memo and strengthen cooperation in common security. The postponed trilateral meeting is the second under the mechanism.

有外媒报道称,此番土耳其推迟三方会晤,主要是因为瑞典国内举行的两场针对土方的抗议示威活动,导致双边关系再度紧张。近日,库尔德工人党支持者在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行的集会上做出侮辱土耳其总统埃尔多安的行为。埃尔多安抨击瑞典纵容“恐怖分子库尔德工人党”存在,要求瑞典向土耳其引渡130名“恐怖分子”,并称这是瑞典获得加入北约许可的必要条件。随后,斯德哥尔摩一连举行两场针对土耳其的抗议示威活动。对此,埃尔多安表示,瑞典不应再指望土耳其支持其加入北约。土耳其外交部长恰武什奥卢表示,瑞典政府批准抗议示威活动的行为难以理解、不可原谅。芬兰则急于撇清与瑞典的关系,声称若瑞典的申请遭到延迟,芬兰将重新考虑两国同时加入北约的相关事宜。外媒评论称,一旦芬兰“单飞”入盟,瑞典将面临尴尬境地,成为欧洲国家中放弃军事中立和不结盟政策、却得不到北约安全保障的国家。瑞典首相克里斯特松随后声称,与芬兰一同加入北约是目前最重要的国家安全问题,并表示会努力恢复与土耳其对话。分析人士表示,北约扩张或因“土耳其的愤怒”暂时停滞,预计今年6月前无法实现北约北扩的目标。

Foreign media reported that Turkey put off the meeting mainly because of the tension with Sweden resulting from two protests against Ankara held in the latter. PKK supporters did derogatory things about Turkish president Erdogan in a recent assembly in Stockholm, and the president slammed Sweden for indulging in the PKK terrorists and requested it to extradite 130 PKK members to Turkey, which he said was a prerequisite for agreeing to Sweden’s admission to NATO. Later two more protests were staged in Stockholm, in response to which Erdogan said Sweden could forget about its support for it to join the organization. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called the Swedish government’s permission of the protests incomprehensible and inexcusable, while Finland, eager to clear itself of the matter, said it would reconsider the “package” application had Sweden’s been deferred. Foreign media commented that Finland joining NATO alone would leave Sweden over a barrel as it would have no security guarantee from the organization after giving up the policy of military neutrality and non-alliance. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson later said joining NATO alongside Finland was the most important national security issue at the moment, and he would try to resume dialogue with Turkey. Analysts conjectured NATO’s northward expansion might be put on hold because of “Turkey’s wrath” with little chance of realization before June 2023.

北约“铁板”或现裂痕

The NATO bloc may see rift.

事实上,“土耳其的愤怒”由来已久。长期以来,土耳其在北约内部备受排挤。最新民调显示,80%的受访土耳其民众认为,美英等国长期对土耳其采取敌对和破坏性政策。土耳其祖国党副主席表示,北约内部有一股反对土耳其的力量,此次瑞典的挑衅行为就是例证,土耳其或因此选择退出北约。尽管随后土耳其政府官员发表声明称“退约”为不实解读,但土耳其与部分北约国家长期形成的矛盾已急剧激化。一些土耳其在野党人士还表示,此前出现的土希军事危机,也是北约部分国家推波助澜的结果。外媒评论称,因瑞典和芬兰入约引发的分歧,已影响到北约的内部团结。

“Turkey’s wrath” didn’t just come out now, but has been simmering for a long time due to the country’s being squeezed within NATO. A large portion of Turkish people believe that countries like the US and Britain have consistently exercised hostile and destructive policies against their countries. The vice chairman of Turkey’s Motherland Party said there was an anti-Turkey force inside NATO as evidenced by Sweden’s recent provocations, which might prompt Ankara to quit the organization. Although his threat to pullout was then explained as an overinterpretation according to a statement released by a Turkish government official, the long-standing conflict between Turkey and some NATO members has quickly exacerbated. Some members of Turkey’s opposition parties even said the earlier military crisis between Turkey and Greece was also stoked by certain members. Foreign media commented that the divergences arising from the joining of Sweden and Finland have already eroded the organization’s solidarity.

此外,对于此次瑞典爆发的抗议示威活动及土耳其的表态,北约多国态度并不一致。美国声称,根据美方评估,瑞典和芬兰完全符合加入北约的条件,将按照程序助推瑞典和芬兰尽快加入北约。法国国内右翼势力公开表达对瑞典的支持,并呼吁法国政府施压土耳其。比利时、波兰等国声称土耳其借机滋事,希望美英等国能把握北约内部话语权,促成瑞典入约一事。北约部分国家主流媒体甚至刊文称“北约应开除土耳其”。

Moreover, the members have taken different stances regarding the protests in Sweden and Turkey’s response. America said its assessment found Sweden and Finland fully qualified to join the organization and it would help expedite the process as per the procedures. French right-wing forces publicly expressed their support for Sweden and called on Paris to put more pressure on Turkey. Belgium and Poland accused Turkey of making trouble and urged the US and Britain to control the discourse within NATO and facilitate Sweden’s entry. Mainstream media of certain members even published articles clamoring for the expelling of Turkey from the alliance.

与之对应,德国、意大利、罗马尼亚等国则表示理解土耳其的关切,认为瑞典方面的做法过于鲁莽。分析认为,事件将再度激化北约内部对于北扩的争议分歧,特别是在美欧裂痕愈难弥合、部分欧洲国家理念相左、欧洲右翼思潮泛起的大环境下,土耳其的举动可能进一步减弱北约的向心力。在各方矛盾叠加下,北约国家间关系已不是铁板一块。

On the contrary, countries including Germany, Italy and Romania have expressed understanding of Turkey’s concerns and thought what Sweden did too rash, which analysts said might once again aggravate the internal dispute over NATO’s northward expansion. In particular, at a time when the US-Europe rift is hard to bridge, some European countries don’t see eye to eye and a right-wing surge is in process in Europe, every move Ankara makes may further attenuate the alliance’s cohesion. With so many divergences and disputes piling up, NATO is far from a united, cohesive bloc now.

地缘格局面临重塑

Geopolitical landscape may be reshaped.

近两年,土耳其在国际和地区热点问题上表现活跃,其影响力也逐渐提升。无论是俄土叙三方会谈机制,还是粮食出口谈判,或是中亚纳卡地区的战事调停,都少不了土耳其的参与。

In the past two years, Turkey has been very active on international and regional hotspot issues with a growing influence, playing a part in the tripartite talks with Russia and Syria, the food export negotiations, and the war intermediation in Central Asia’s Nagorno-Karabakh region.

分析人士表示,土耳其对北约扩张的不认同无疑将在欧洲地区产生重要影响。一方面,欧洲国家在宗教文化、民主价值和权益利益等层面的矛盾或将加深,“新”“老”欧洲和欧洲不同地域间固有的传统分歧或将加大。这些都将对地缘格局产生重要影响。另一方面,因“仇俄”“恐俄”而暂时团结起来的北约诸国,或因各自利益变化产生“离心”趋势。

According to analysis, Turkey’s disagreement with NATO’s expansion will undoubtedly exert immense effects on Europe. For one thing, the arguments among European countries on such issues as religion, culture, democracy, and rights and interests may go deeper, and the traditional divergences between the “old” and the “new” Europe and among different regions of the continent may widen. Both will seriously affect the geopolitical landscape. For another, NATO members that have been temporarily united on the anti-Russia common ground may split apart because of their varying interests.

 

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