陈航辉　董　攀

By Chen Hanghui and Dong Pan

2023年开年以来，美国与日本频频展开互动。在美日举行防长外长“2+2”会议，商讨强化美日同盟新举措后，两国领导人紧接着在白宫进行会晤，就日本新版《国家安全保障战略》等议题交换意见。美日高层的密集会面，是近年来美日频繁互动的一个缩影，其背后是美日同盟关系、职能和性质的持续嬗变，正深刻影响东北亚乃至整个亚太地区的安全格局。由此产生的一系列负面影响，引起国际社会高度警惕。

The US and Japan have had frequent interactions in 2023. Right after their defense and foreign ministers discussed new measures for strengthening the bilateral alliance at the “two plus two” meeting, Japanese Prime Minister and US President held talks at the White House exchanging views on Japan’s latest National Security Strategy and other issues. The intensive high-level meetings epitomize the two countries’ closer engagements in recent years, behind which is the continual evolution of the US-Japan alliance and its function and nature, which is exerting a deep impact on the security situation of Northeast Asia or even the entire Asian Pacific region, generating a string of consequences that have put the international community on high alert.

同盟关系：由“美主日从”向“相互联动”转变

The US-Japan alliance: “Japan following American lead” is replaced by “more equal interactions”

冷战时期，为应对苏联威胁，美日形成了“美主日从”的依附型同盟关系。其中，美军充当“矛”，担负进攻作战任务；日本自卫队扮演“盾”，负责向美军提供后勤补给和装备保障。冷战结束后，日本在美日同盟中的地位虽然有所变化，但始终没有打破这一关系格局。

To fend off the threats from the Soviet Union, the US and Japan formed an alliance during the Cold War with the US taking the lead – acting as the aggressive spear – and Japan in a subordinate position with its JSDF acting as the shield that provided logistics supplies and equipment for US troops. Japan’s position in the alliance changed a bit after the Cold War ended but the superior-subordinate structure remained.

2022年12月，在美国的默许和支持下，日本政府出台了新版《国家安全保障战略》等3份安保文件，计划未来5年将防卫预算提升至国内生产总值2%的标准，并明确要让日本自卫队拥有打击敌方导弹基地的所谓“反击能力”，从而为日本自卫队发展进攻能力打开了方便之门。这意味着日本自卫队将从“专守防卫”全面转向“攻守兼备”，日本和平宪法已名存实亡。在此背景下，日本在同盟中的地位获得极大改变，其角色将从保障员升级为战斗员。美国海军战争学院教授保罗·史密斯声称，日本新防务战略的出台，标志着美日同盟进入新阶段。

With Washington’s acquiescence and support, the Japanese government issued its latest National Security Strategy and two other security documents in December 2022, according to which it planned to increase its defense budget to 2% of GDP in the next five years and equip the JSDF with the so-called “counterattack capability” of attacking enemy missile bases, officially greenlighting the JSDF’s development of strike capabilities. This meant that JSDF will move from “defense only” to “offense/defense” on all fronts and that Japan’s Pacifist Constitution only exists in name, thus largely elevating the country’s position in the alliance from a supporter to a fighter. Professor Paul Smith at the US Naval War College said the release of Japan’s new defense strategy marked the beginning of a new stage in the US-Japan alliance.

伴随着身份角色的转变，日本正向军事大国快速跃进。根据2022年日本通过的《防卫力量整备计划》，日本防卫预算未来将翻番，从2022财年的5.4万亿日元增至2027财年的10万亿日元以上，或将成为全球第三大军费开支国。去年12月，日本内阁通过了2023财年防卫预算，总额达6.8万亿日元，同比增长26%，增加的防卫费主要用于提升自卫队的防区外打击、一体化防空反导、无人机作战等所谓“反击能力”。当前，日本自卫队正加紧研制和引进改进型12式反舰导弹、“战斧”巡航导弹、攻击无人机、高超音速导弹等先进武器，组建远程导弹部队，计划2030年前具备较强的远程精确打击和无人作战能力。

With the change of its position, Japan is taking bold and fast steps to become a military power. According to the Defense Force Preparedness Plan passed in 2022, it plans to double the defense budget from JPY 5.4 trillion in FY 2022 to more than 10 trillion in FY 2027, probably the third highest in the world. In December 2022, Japanese Cabinet passed the JPY 6.8 trillion defense budget for FY 2023, a year-on-year increase of 26% that will mainly be used to enhance the JSDF’s so-called “counterattack capabilities”, including attacks outside the defense zone, integrated air defense and anti-missile operations, and UAV operations. JSDF is also working hard to develop and introduce a slew of advanced weapons including the modified Type-12 anti-ship missile, Tomahawk cruise missile, offensive UAV, and hypersonic missile, and forming the long-range missile unit, getting ready to be capable of long-range precise strike and unmanned operations by 2030.

同盟职能：由“同盟保护”向“同盟投射”演变

Function of the alliance: “alliance protection” is replaced by “alliance projection”

近年来，为塑造由美主导的印太秩序，美国不断加快推进印太盟伴体系的重组重构，推动其由冷战时期的“辐辏结构”向“中心-节点型网状结构”转变。在新盟伴体系中，美国是整个体系的中心，日本是体系中发挥粘合和纽带作用的重要节点，美日同盟成为美国重塑印太盟伴体系的重要抓手。去年，美驻日大使伊曼纽尔声称，美日同盟已从“同盟保护”时代进入面向印太地区的“同盟投射”时代。

In recent years, the US has picked up speed in reshaping and restructuring its Indo-Pacific alliance/partnership system from the hub-and-spoke structure during the Cold War to the center-node network structure now in order to dominate the regional order. In this new system, the US is the center while Japan is an important adhesive and bonding node, with their alliance serving as a key instrument of reshaping. In 2022, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said the relationship between the two countries had evolved from “alliance protection” to “alliance projection”.

以美日同盟为基础，构建小多边遏华联盟。2022年《美国印太战略》报告称，要塑造中国的周边环境，形成有利于美国的影响力均势。在印太战略指引下，美国以美日同盟为基础，积极构建美日韩、美日澳、美日印澳等小多边联盟，密织印太遏华联盟网。特别是美日印澳所谓“四边机制”，已成为美在印太地区从政治、经济、科技等维度遏制中国的主要平台。需要指出的是，为扩大自身影响力，日本在构建“美日+”小多边联盟过程中表现活跃，是所谓“四边机制”的重要推动者。

Smaller-scale multilateral anti-China alliances have been formed on the basis of the US-Japan alliance. The Indo-Pacific Strategy of the US in 2022 vowed to form an environment around China – a balance of influence to be specific – that’s beneficial to the US. Guided by it, Washington, based on its alliance with Japan, has formed several smaller-scale multilateral alliances, respectively comprising US-Japan-ROK, US-Japan-Australia, and US-Japan-India-Australia, to weave a tight Indo-Pacific net against China, with the last one – the QUAD – being the main regional platform on which the US attempts to contain China on the political, economic, technological and other dimensions. It must be pointed out that to augment its own influence, Japan has been very active in forming those small alliances and is a key pusher of QUAD.

以美日同盟为纽带，拉近美国与东南亚国家关系。东南亚国家是美国推进印太战略的重要一环。拜登政府上台后，大力推行所谓“民主价值观外交”，但大多时候在东南亚没有得到积极回应。而日本与东南亚国家经贸往来密切、外交互动频繁，拥有一定的影响力，因此成为美国拉拢东南亚国家的重要帮手。2022年5月，拜登政府选择在东京启动“印太经济框架”，正是日本的积极游说，最终促成东盟10国中的7国参加。

The US is trying to intensify its relations with Southeast Asian countries through its alliance with Japan. Southeast Asian countries are a major force in promoting America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. After Biden took office, he has been strongly promoting the value-based  diplomacy, which however didn’t get much response in Southeast Asia. Seeing that Japan carries a certain weight in the region with close economic, trade and diplomatic ties with the countries there, Washington has taken it as a major aide in getting close to them. In May 2022, the Biden administration was lobbied by Japan into launching the “Indo-Pacific economic framework” in Tokyo, which involved seven of the 10 ASEAN members.

以美日同盟为桥梁，连通北约与印太联盟体系。近年来，美国试图“桥接”北约和印太两大联盟体系，以期在欧亚两端灵活集中联盟优势，维护其全球霸主地位。日本凭借其“亚洲的西方国家”这一特殊身份，在欧亚大陆开展穿梭外交，积极配合美国的“桥接”行动。从邀请英法等国定期赴日参加联合军演，到参加北约军政首脑会议，再到与英国签署《互惠准入协定》，日本与北约的勾连程度不断加深。

The US is connecting NATO with its Indo-Pacific alliance system through the alliance with Japan. In recent years, Washington has been trying to connect NATO and its Indo-Pacific alliance system with the purpose of having flexible group advantages on both the European and Asian ends and maintaining its global hegemony. Leveraged on its special capacity as the “Western country in Asia”, Japan has been busy conducting shuttle diplomacy across the Eurasian continent to assist in such a connection. As a result, its collusion with NATO has kept deepening – it has invited countries like Britain and France to regularly come to Japan for joint military exercises, participated in NATO’s top meetings, and signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement with Britain.

同盟性质：由“防御同盟”向“进攻同盟”蜕变

Nature of the alliance: “defensive alliance” evolves into “aggressive alliance”

日前，美日首脑会谈联合声明中提到，美日同盟是“印太地区和平与安全的基石”。但事实恰恰相反，美日同盟已不是曾经的防御同盟，而是日益成为具有明显对抗性的进攻同盟。

The recent joint statement between US and Japanese leaders said that their alliance remained the “cornerstone” for peace, security and prosperity of the region, but the reality is exactly the opposite. The US-Japan alliance is no longer defensive as it used to be but has become increasingly aggressive and confrontational.

从美日同盟的目的性质看，其根本是为维持美国在亚太地区的霸权，是一个不折不扣的争霸型同盟。纵观历史，争霸型同盟的一个共同特点，是其行为特征具有很强的进攻性和对抗性，是引发地区乃至全球冲突战乱的重要不稳定因素。一战时的同盟国、二战时的轴心国、冷战后的北约，均是如此。

In terms of purpose and nature, the US-Japan alliance is a downright contending bloc aimed to maintain America’s hegemony in the Asian-Pacific region. In history, all such blocs, such as the allied nations in WWI, the Axis powers in WWII, and the post-Cold War NATO, share something in common – they are highly aggressive and confrontational and are an important destabilizing factor that triggers regional or global conflict and war.

从美日同盟的防卫范围看，拜登政府明确表示《美日安保条约》中的共同防卫条款适用于钓鱼岛，这充分说明美日同盟的职能并非纯粹自卫，具有明显的领土扩张性和攻击性。不仅如此，2021年4月以来，美日领导人联合声明中多次提及所谓“维持台海和平与稳定的重要性”，这种变相将他国内政问题纳入同盟义务的做法，是对当事国主权的粗暴干涉，严重违背《联合国宪章》宗旨和国际法基本原则，暴露出美日同盟日益强烈的对外干预倾向。

In terms of the scope of defense, the Biden administration has made it clear that the terms of common defense set forth in the US-Japan Security Treaty apply to the Diaoyu Islands, which means the bilateral alliance isn’t just for defense but is also set to expand territory and launch attacks. Furthermore, joint statements issued by leaders of the two countries since April 2021 have repeatedly mentioned“the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”. This act of dressing up another country’s internal affair as the alliance’s obligation represents a gross interference in said country’s sovereignty, seriously contravenes the purpose of the UN Charter and the basic principles of international law, and exposes the US-Japan alliance’s growing tendency for external interference.

此外，日本因其岛国环境和历史原因，对外政策具有较强的机会主义和冒险主义倾向。基于美日同盟关系，日本企图以主动配合美国的战略竞争换取对其军事松绑，并趁机扩充军力、补齐军事短板，实现所谓“全面大国化”战略目标，进而谋求东亚地区领导权。

As an island country with an aggressive history, Japan has always shown a strong inclination toward opportunism and adventurism in its foreign policies. Based on the alliance with the US, it intends to actively assist in America’s strategic rivalry in exchange for the lifting of military restrictions upon itself, an opportunity that it would seize firmly to ramp up military strengths, shore up weak links, achieve the so-called strategic goal of becoming an all-round major power, and seek a dominant position in East Asia.