By Zhang Wenwen

张文文

It is reported that a Japanese cabinet meeting recently passed a bill on strengthening domestic defense industry, including articles on establishing a foundation to promote weapons and equipment export. This is a major step taken by the Japanese government to expand its export of weapons and equipment, with the aim of reinforcing the defense industry and realizing the long-term goal of turning Japan into a so-called "military power".

据媒体报道，日本内阁会议近期通过防卫产业生产基础强化法案，其中加入了成立促进武器装备出口基金等相关条文。这是日本政府扩大武器装备出口的重要举措，意在壮大自身防卫产业，为实现日本所谓“军事大国化”长期目标服务。

The bill is said to mainly contain two aspects. The first is to reinforce Japan's defense industry chain and preventing some small and medium-sized defense-related companies from exiting the industry due to the sluggish market and consequently disrupting the industry chain, thus affecting equipment manufacturing and homeland security. The second is to facilitate Japan's export of weapons and equipment and provide a financial subsidy for technical adjustments made to meet the needs of international buyers.

据悉，该法案主要涉及两个方面内容：一是巩固日本国内防卫产业链，尤其是避免一些与防卫相关的中小企业因受市场冲击退出防卫产业，造成供应链断裂，影响装备生产以及日本本土安全；二是助力日本武器装备出口，为适应国际买方需要进行的技术调整提供财政补贴。

"This bill, coupled with the three security documents including the new National Security Strategy (NSS) released at the end of 2022, makes enhancing the weapon and equipment manufacturing capability an important part of substantially enhancing the country's defense capabilities and paves the way for the massive increase in military spending that may double in a few years," said Sun Wenzhu, an associate research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies. Sun added that the Kishida administration has paid close attention to economic security since it came into power, making a point of fostering a resilient industry chain in all fields in case any instability in the international situation may send shock waves across the Japanese industries. The bill is a manifestation of Tokyo's economic security thought in the defense sector.

“该法案与日本2022年年底出台的新版《国家安全保障战略》等‘安保三文件’配套，把提升武器装备制造能力作为落实‘实质性强化防卫能力’的重要内容，为军费大幅增长乃至数年后的军费翻倍提供助力。”中国国际问题研究院亚太研究所副研究员孙文竹表示，岸田政府上台以来，高度关注经济安全，着力在各领域打造“有韧性的产业链”，以防范未来可能出现的国际形势动荡对日本各行业造成冲击，该法案可谓其经济安全思路在防卫产业领域的体现。

XuYongzhi, director of the Division of Japanese Security Studies at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said the bill is aimed to promote the so-called "Indo-Pacific order" under the disguise of boosting weapons and equipment export. Japan's new National Security Strategy vowed to develop a free and open international order in the Indo-Pacific and create a new military assistance mechanism. Seeing ASEAN as a promising market, Tokyo has signed agreements with several Southeast Asian countries on equipment transfer.

关于该法案的目的，中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所日本安全研究室主任徐永智认为，这是借武器装备出口推行所谓“印太秩序”。日本新版《国家安全保障战略》提出，要在印太发展自由与开放的国际秩序，并且明确将建立军事援助新机制。日本视东盟为大有希望的市场，已与多个东南亚国家签署装备转移的相关协定。

Restricted by its Pacifist Constitution, Japan's homemade weapons and equipment can only be used to equip its own self-defense forces. The country generally followed the "three principles on arms export" before 2014, which means weapon export to countries other than the US is almost completely prohibited except in extremely special cases.

受和平宪法束缚，日本国产武器装备使用对象主要是自卫队。2014年之前，日本大体上奉行“武器出口三原则”，除个别特例外，基本全面禁止对美国之外国家的武器出口。

"In 2014, the Abe administration officially lifted the ban on weapon export and revised the 'three principles on arms export' into the 'three principles on transfer of defense equipment and technology' to allow weapon export if, as Tokyo put it, that could contribute to peace and Japan's national security. But it cannot export weapons to conflicting countries and countries under UN embargo according to international conventions," said Xu Yongzhi.

徐永智说，“2014年，安倍政府正式解禁武器出口，并将原有的‘武器出口三原则’修订为‘防卫装备转移三原则’，标榜如果能对和平作出贡献、利于日本的国家安全，则允许武器出口。同时按照国际惯例，不对冲突当事国、联合国禁运国等出口武器。”

According to Sun Wenzhu, Japan revised the "three principles on transfer of defense equipment and technology" again after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022, and provided body armor, helmet and other equipment to Ukraine on the grounds of jointly coping with the threats to international order. That created a bad precedent for it to keep interfering in international conflicts like that in the future. The revised National Security Strategy that came out at the end of 2022 discussed further expanding the scope of weapon export, including exporting lethal weapons like missiles and fighter jets to some countries it has signed cooperation agreements with.

孙文竹表示， 2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发后，日本又修订了“防卫装备转移三原则”，以“共同应对国际秩序受到的威胁”为由，向乌克兰提供了防弹衣、头盔等装备，为今后进一步以类似形式干预国际冲突开启恶劣先例。2022年年底日本修订《国家安全保障战略》，开始探讨进一步扩大武器出口范围，向部分签订合作协议的国家出口导弹、战斗机等致命性武器。

Sun explained Japan's expanding export of weapons and equipment in two ways. First, it wants to intensify its presence in the field of military security in order to substantially hollow out the Pacifist Constitution and the "self-defense only" principle, and gradually evolve into a military power. Second, it wants to find its way into the international arms market, make money from exporting weapons and equipment, and therefore have more capital for its own military buildup.

对于日本不断扩大武器装备出口的行径，孙文竹表示，一方面，日本意图增强自身在军事安全领域的国际存在感，从而实质性架空和平宪法与“专守防卫”原则，逐步向军事大国迈进。另一方面，日本也有打入国际军售市场，借武器装备出口获取经济利益，为自身重整军备拓宽资金来源。

However, Japan's efforts to revive its defense industry have encountered many difficulties. In Sun's opinion, the Japanese defense industry has been closed to the outside world for too long. JSDF is basically the only customer at home, and domestic competition is next to zero, which has resulted in a high manufacturing cost and low performance-price ratio. Moreover, Japanese manufacturers are not good at customization according to customers' demands, and their parts are not for universal use, which means low competitiveness in the international market.

然而，日本妄图重振防卫产业也面临诸多困难。在孙文竹看来，日本防卫产业长期较为封闭，客户几乎仅有日本自卫队一家，国内竞争不强，导致生产成本高，性价比差，且不擅长根据不同的客户需求加以定制化改动，部件的通用性较为有限，国际竞争力不强。

Given the high price and limited technological level, Japan may focus on exporting more military vessels, patrol aircraft and radar to Southeast Asian countries, said Xu Yongzhi. But its ambition to revive the defense industry is anything but optimistic as the recent moves have already put all concerned parties on high alert.

徐永智认为，由于价格昂贵、技术水平有限等因素，日本武器装备出口未来可能主要是针对东南亚国家拓展军舰、巡逻机、雷达出口。日本妄图重振防卫产业前景并不乐观，其动向已引起各方高度警惕。